Rays vs. Mariners Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Friday, Aug. 7

The Tampa Bay Rays are looking to extend their lead atop the American league on Friday night, as they open a three-game set with the Seattle Mariners, who are under .500 at this point in the 2026 season.

Seattle is 1.5 games out of a wild card spot in the AL, a far cry from where it was last season when it made the ALCS.

Two elite right-handed pitchers are set to face off in this matchup, as Drew Rasmussen (2.91 ERA) is on the mound for the Rays against Seattle’s Logan Gilbert (3.46 ERA).

Gilbert has led the Mariners to a 14-8 record in his 22 outings this season, but can he pitch well enough for them to knock off the top team in the AL?

Oddsmakers seem to think so, as the Mariners are favored at home in this matchup.

Here’s a look at the latest odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this AL showdown on Friday night.

Rays vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Rays +1.5 (-224)
Mariners -1.5 (+183)

Moneyline

Rays: +111
Mariners: -119

Total

7 (Over +100/Under -121)

Rays vs. Mariners Probable Pitchers

Tampa Bay: Drew Rasmussen (10-5, 2.91 ERA)
Seattle: Logan Gilbert (8-6, 3.46 ERA)

Rays vs. Mariners How to Watch

Date: Friday, Aug. 7
Time: 9:45 p.m. EST
Venue: T-Mobile Park
How to Watch (TV): Apple TV
Rays record: 68-46
Mariners record: 56-60

Rays vs. Mariners Best MLB Prop Bets

Rays Best MLB Prop Bet

Drew Rasmussen UNDER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-158)

An All-Star this season, Rasmussen has been terrific for the Rays, ranking in the 84th percentile in expected ERA, the 82nd percentile in hard-hit percentage and the 99th percentile in walk percentage.

The Rays right-hander has given up just 20 free passes in 117.1 innings of work, registering 17 outings with one or fewer walks allowed.

In fact, Rasmussen has not allowed two walks in a start since June 22.

Seattle is just 16th in MLB walks drawn this season, so I wouldn’t be shocked if Rasmussen escapes this start with one free pass – or fewer – allowed.

Rays vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

These teams are trending in the opposite direction with the playoff approaching, as Seattle has dropped out of the top spot in the AL West and is just 4-6 in its last 10 games with a negative run differential this season.

Meanwhile, the Rays are 7-3 in their last 10 games and have won three in a row to keep the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox at bay in the AL East. Tampa Bay is under .500 on the road this season, but I can’t pass up a chance to get the Rays at plus money with Rasmussen on the mound.

The right-hander has made the All-Star team in back-to-back seasons, and he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in 15 of his 21 starts in 2026. On top of that, Rasmussen ranks in the 84th percentile amongst MLB starters in expected ERA.

Gilbert has been solid in the 2026 season for the Mariners, leading them to a 14-8 record in his outings, but this Seattle offense may not be able to give him enough support against another high-level starter.

The Mariners are 28th in MLB in OPS and 29th in runs scored this season while the Rays are 16th in runs scored and ninth in OPS.

Ultimately, I think this game is mispriced given how much better Tampa Bay has been in the 2026 season.

Pick: Rays Moneyline (+111 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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