Mariners Fan Favorite Projected To Sign $92 Million Free-Agent Deal

Is this price tag within reason for Seattle?

Oct 10, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners first baseman Josh Naylor (12) runs on a double against the Detroit Tigers during the second inning during game five of the ALDS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

The Seattle Mariners loved having Josh Naylor around, and he was extremely productive in his 2 1/2 months in town.

After putting up an .836 OPS in the regular season as a Mariner and a .967 mark in October, Naylor is headed to free agency. He can't be saddled with a qualifying offer, which should help his market, and his value has never been higher. He's still young, too, at age 28.

It means something that the Mariners have consistently professed their desire to keep Naylor. But it's also going to come down to dollars and cents, and if Seattle isn't willing to match Naylor's market value, it's highly unlikely he'll accept a hometown discount. So what is he worth, realistically?

Naylor's contract projection, via The Athletic

Oct 13, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Seattle Mariners first baseman Josh Naylor (12) runs after hitting a two run home run against the Toronto Blue Jays in the seventh inning during game two of the ALCS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images | Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

On Tuesday, Tim Britton of The Athletic projected that Naylor would earn a four-year, $92 million contract this winter, which would make him the Mariners' second-highest-paid player on an average annual value (AAV) basis.

For comparison, Britton stacked up his projection for Naylor against past deals signed by Christian Walker, Mike Napoli, and Carlos Santana, all of which were for two or three years.

"Naylor’s youth here helps him; he should sign for longer than any of these players, with a five-year deal firmly within reason. I’m going to stick with four, however, because just about every player who gets five or more years has a better track record than Naylor," wrote Britton.

"Keeping it to four years means an AAV on the higher side of this cohort."

It's uncertain whether the Mariners are ready to top $20 million per year for a first baseman, as the most they've ever spent on a position player in free agency was $24 million for Robinson Canó -- which didn't turn out to be a wise investment.

At the same time, if Seattle isn't willing to pony up, who will be? It's weird to say after such a short stint, but Naylor is probably worth more to the Mariners, for whom he was truly the missing piece, than he would be to most other lineups.

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