The 3 MLB Teams Whose Hot Starts Won’t Last

There are a few teams around the league that arguably are due for some regression.

Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly de la Cruz (44) stretches between pitches in the eighth inning of the MLB National League game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Colorado Rockies at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. The Reds won the opening game of the series, 7-2. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Over the course of the 2026 Major League Baseball season, we've seen a lot of positives and a lot of negatives.

We've seen teams that were expected to enter the season towards the bottom of the standings completely outperform expectations. The same can be said about a few contenders who have been struggling to open the season. Frankly, the entire American League as a whole is a big question mark, outside of the New York Yankees.

That's not an exaggeration. There are just three teams in the American League with a record better than .500. Those are the Yankees (20-11), Tampa Bay Rays (18-12), and the Athletics (16-14). If you had predicted that after one month, there would be just three teams in the American League above .500 and two of them would be the Rays and Athletics, you should be playing the lottery.

Overall, it's been a fun season so far. With May just about here, there are a few teams that scuffled out the door to kick off the season who should be able to start turning things around soon. There are also teams that were great out of the gate and likely will see a bit of regression. Here are three to watch out for.

Cincinnti Reds

Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly de la Cruz (44) runs the bases after hitting his 10th home run of the season in the eighth inning of the MLB National League game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Colorado Rockies at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. The Reds won the opening game of the series, 7-2. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Reds are 19-11 on the season so far. Cincinnati very well could be good for the duration of the 2026 season, but it would be a bit surprising if it is able to keep up this pace. The National League Central is the most competitive division in baseball right now with each team at least one game above .500. Soon enough, there will be more division matchups to watch out for and we'll see Cincinnati come back down to earth a bit.

Miami Marlins

Apr 29, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Miami Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22) throws a pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

The Marlins are 15-16 right now and in second place in the National League East. Now, being one game below .500 shouldn't qualify as "hot," but this is way better than expected. Plus they actually were among the best overall teams in baseball through the first few weeks. The Marlins have some solid pitching and young pieces in place, but it would be a bit surprising to see Miami finish the season above teams like the Philadelphia Phillies or even the New York Mets in the standings.

Tampa Bay Rays

Apr 28, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Jonathan Aranda (8) and relief pitcher Cole Sulser (71) celebrate a win over the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images | David Richard-Imagn Images

The Tampa Bay Rays have been the second-best team in the American League so far. The Rays were expected to be near the bottom of the AL East standings. But, again, they have been the second-best team in the American League as a whole. There will be some regression at some point.