Wisconsin girls high school basketball state championship matchups and predictions (3/15/25)

Who will be crowned as champs? High School on SI has predictions on all five winners in each WIAA division

Kimberly High School's Kate McGinnis (12) pulls up for a shot against Appleton East High School during a WIAA Division 1 state semifinal on Friday, March 14, 2025, at the Resch Center in Ashwaubenon, Wis. McGinnis and the Makers play the Muskego Warriors for the Division 1 State Championship. Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / Tork Mason / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The stage is set for the Wisconsin girls high school basketball state championships. After two days of high-stakes semifinal action at the Resch Center, five state titles are on the line Saturday as ten teams prepare for their biggest test of the season.

Early exits for top seeds in Divisions 3 and 4

Thursday's slate featured Division 3 and Division 4 semifinals, and the state’s top-ranked teams found themselves on the wrong side of upsets. No. 1 Elk Mound and No. 1 Prairie, the highest seeds after the tournament reseeding, both fell short, proving that rankings mean little once the ball is thrown up at tipoff.

Assumption and Barneveld set for the Division 5 title

Friday’s action tipped off with the Division 5 semifinals, where Assumption and Barneveld punched their tickets to the Division 5 championship game. The two programs will square off early Saturday morning in pursuit of that precious gold ball.

Division 2 favorites dominate the pack

There were no surprises in Division 2, where both top seeds coasted to their wins. The margin of victory was staggering, as the top two seeds won their semifinal matchups by a combined 45 points, leaving little doubt about their cases to be here today.

Kimberly and Muskego meet for ultimate bragging rights in Division 1

Division 1 takes center stage last, and Saturday's final will feature a heavyweight clash. Kimberly, the state’s lone one-loss team, will face a red-hot Muskego squad that took down Arrowhead, a serious title contender, by double digits.

Awaiting Championship Saturday

All five state championship games will be held at the Resch Center in Green Bay, where five teams will leave as newly crowned champions.

High School on SI has the predictions locked in for which five teams will rise to the occasion and leave Green Bay with a state championship.

BRACKETS: 2025 Wisconsin (WIAA) Division 1 Girls Basketball Tournament

BRACKETS: 2025 Wisconsin (WIAA) Division 2 Girls Basketball Tournament

BRACKETS: 2025 Wisconsin (WIAA) Division 3 Girls Basketball Tournament

BRACKETS: 2025 Wisconsin (WIAA) Division 4 Girls Basketball Tournament

BRACKETS: 2025 Wisconsin (WIAA) Division 5 Girls Basketball Tournament

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DIVISION 5

11:05 a.m.

(1) Assumption vs. (3) Barneveld

Prediction: Assumption

The Royals are coming off a dominant 61-36 victory over Owen-Withee, fueled by an incredible defensive effort. As a team, they recorded 33 steals, with senior Sarah Shaw setting a state record of 12 steals in a single game.

Barneveld, a historically strong program, pulled off an impressive upset to reach the championship. However, Assumption’s one-loss season and suffocating defense make them too tough to overcome. Expect the Royals to claim the Division 5 title.

DIVISION 4

Following Division 5 Championship

(4) Cuba City vs. (2) St. Mary Catholic

Prediction: Cuba City

Cuba City just took down No. 1 Prairie, proving why they are Wisconsin’s most decorated girls’ basketball program with 11 state titles. They have one of the most balanced offenses in the tournament, with five players averaging double digits in scoring.

St. Mary Catholic has relied on a three-pronged attack led by Emily Vogel, Nolie Anderson, and Autumn Crowe, comfortably handling Durand in a 58-45 semifinal victory. While St. Mary Catholic has been playing exceptionally well, Cuba City’s depth and offensive balance give them the edge in this matchup.

DIVISION 3

Following Division 4 Championship

(4) Xavier vs. (2) Oostburg

Prediction: Oostburg

Both teams have earned their way to the final with big wins over No. 1 seeds. Xavier knocked off Elk Mound, who had only lost once all season, and also took down No. 1 Wittenberg-Birnamwood in sectionals.

Oostburg, meanwhile, has just two losses all season, both coming against elite opponents. Their first was to No. 3 Laconia, a team they just avenged their loss against in the semifinals, and the other to Division 1 No. 4 Appleton East. Oostburg has been the top team in Division 3 all year, and while this should be a close game, their consistency and quality wins give them the slight advantage in this one.

DIVISION 2

6:35 p.m.

(1) Edgewood vs. (2) Wauwatosa East

Prediction: Edgewood

Edgewood’s defense has been its calling card all season, routinely holding opponents to the 30-40 point range. They demonstrated that defensive prowess again in the semifinals, shutting down Rice Lake in a 52-30 victory.

However, they now face their toughest challenge yet—a Wauwatosa East team that averages 75.5 points per game this season. In their semifinal matchup, they nearly hit that average, putting up 71 points in a win over West De Pere.

This is the ultimate defense vs. offense battle, but the old adage holds: defense wins championships. Edgewood’s ability to control the tempo and force Wauwatosa East into tough shots should lead them to a state title.

DIVISION 1

Following Division 2 Championship

(1) Kimberly vs. (3) Muskego

Prediction: Kimberly

This Division 1 championship matchup is as good as it gets. Kimberly has put together an almost flawless season, with their only loss coming against Pewaukee in the regular season, a team they eventually avenged in the sectional championship. Their latest victory, a commanding semifinal win over Appleton East, reinforced their status as the team to beat. Senior Katelyn McGinnis leads a balanced and efficient offensive attack.

Muskego, a four-loss team, has been dangerous in the postseason. They turned a regular-season loss to Arrowhead into a 12-point semifinal victory, proving their ability to make adjustments in the postseason and be at their best when it matters most.

This should be a tight game, but Kimberly’s overall talent, consistency, and ability to close out games make them the favorite to secure the Division 1 championship.

Lasting Thoughts

Multiple No. 4 seeds made it to the state championship across divisions this year, filling this tournament with even more suprises than we've been filled with so far. However, defense, depth, and balanced scoring are key to winning championships. This is why I see teams like Cuba City, Edgewood, and Kimberly thriving in this environment, and I expect to see them on top.

Regardless of the results, expect a fantastic slate of games in lady's hoops today; five games that close out a fantastic year.

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-- Sam Heyn | samuelheyn@gmail.com | @sam_heyn