Skip to main content

2016 NBA free agency: No shortage of difference-making centers on market

With Hassan Whiteside and Dwight Howard at the top of the list, 2016 NBA free agency has no shortage of available centers. 

Although the 2016 free agency class is somewhat underwhelming when it comes to overall A-list talent, particularly at the point guard position, there’s no shortage of difference-making centers set to hit the market later this week.

Indeed, the wide-ranging center crop has a little bit of everything: max talent (Andre Drummond, Al Horford), decorated All-Stars in need of new homes (Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol), impact defenders (Bismack Biyombo, Ian Mahinmi), aging bucket-getters (Al Jefferson, Nene), possible dinosaurs (Joakim Noah, Roy Hibbert), and arguably this summer’s single most intriguing free agent (Hassan Whiteside). NBA GMs searching for a five have choices upon choices.   

With free agency set to open at midnight ET Friday, let’s wade through this deep positional pool with the help of a few charts and graphs. All data is courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.

Top 50 NBA free agents | Conley tops light PG field

Big Picture 

This summer’s center crop has nearly 20 names of note, although a chunk of that group is made up of restricted free agents (Drummond, Festus Ezeli, Meyers Leonard). To get a lay of the land, here’s a look at 18 free agent centers charted by Player Efficiency Rating and Win Shares.

The goal here is to visually assess efficiency and total impact during the 2015–16 season. Players in the upper right are high-impact and high-efficiency (generally the most desirable).

source: imgur.com

A few things jump out here. First, the polarizing Whiteside stands alone as an advanced-stats producer. Given his age (27) and performance by these major metrics, he would be the class’s most-coveted center if not for questions about his personality and circuitous professional trip to the Heat.

Second, Boban Marjanovic sticks out as an ultra-high-efficiency, low-impact player. As a 27-year-old rookie in San Antonio, the 7’3” Serbian made the most of his limited playing time. While no one would reasonably expect Marjanovic to scale his production in a starter’s role, he looks like the most deserving “flier” candidate in this class by a wide margin.     

Third, there’s not much separating Biyombo, perhaps the most-heralded breakout player of the 2016 playoffs, from guys like Mahinmi and Amir Johnson when it comes to season-long play. Biyombo should be able to step up his production in a starting role, but Mahinmi and Johnson look like good value plays for teams unwilling or unable to participate in a Biyombo auction. 

Similarly, this chart shows each player’s Real Plus-Minus on offense (x axis) and defense (y axis). Players in the upper right are positive contributors on both sides of the ball (the most desirable).

Whiteside will be a hot commodity in free agency | The Rose blockbuster

source: imgur.com

There’s a little more clustering in this chart, but Johnson and Mahinmi again perform similarly to Biyombo when it comes to defensive impact.

Another takeaway: How few of the traditional centers are making a positive impact on offense. While physical guys like Howard and Jefferson have cultivated reputations as scoring options in the past, a developing narrative suggests the “pace and space” NBA is moving on without them. This chart shows plodders like Hibbert and Mozgov really struggling to make an offensive impact last season, with more versatile big men like Horford and Gasol faring better.

Two-way paint-controllers

The ideal two-way center pressures opposing defenses by finishing in the basket area and thwarts opposing offenses by protecting the basket area. Obviously, it’s hard to find both.

The following chart shows a player’s FG% within three feet on the X axis and his FG% defense at the rim on the Y axis. Players in the upper right are good finishers and good rim-protectors (the most desirable).

source: imgur.com

The cream generally rises to the top here: Whiteside, Horford and Howard may very well command the highest per-year salaries in this class, and they were the top three finishers last year. Whiteside, the NBA’s block leader, has the best case as last season’s top two-way paint-controller, although Marjanovic and Ezeli both did well to make an impact in limited roles.

What really stands out on this chart, however, are the players on the other side of the chart who perform poorly both as finishers and rim-protectors. Executives should proceed with caution when it comes to both Noah and Leonard, and guys like Jefferson (the worst rim-protector in the group) and Gasol (who posted a career-worst FG% inside three feet last season) are clearly showing their age/miles.

01-Kevin-Durant-SI404_TK1_02003.jpg
02-LeBron-James-SI139_TK1_01150.i.jpg
03-Andre-Drummond-X160150_TK1_3634.jpg
04-Al-Horford-SI368_TK1_00456.jpg
05-Mike-Conley.jpg
06-Hassan-Whiteside.jpg
07-Dwight-Howard-SI338_TK1_00282.jpg
08-Bradley-Beal.jpg
09-Nicolas-Batum.jpg
10-Dwyane-Wade.jpg
11-DeMar-DeRozan-SI401_TK1_01697.jpg
12-Tim-Duncan-SI377_TK1_01094.jpg
13-Dirk-Nowitzki-SI-186_TK1_00967.jpg
14-Chandler-Parsons-SI-210_TK1_00168.jpg
15-Pau-Gasol.jpg
16-Bismack-Biyombo-SI401_TK1_02117.jpg
17-Ian-Mahinmi.jpg
18-Festus-Ezeli-SI385_TK1_04678.jpg
19-Ryan-Anderson.jpg
20-Marvin-Williams.jpg
21-Al-Jefferson.jpg
22-Harrison-Barnes-SI141_TK1_04556.jpg
23-Kent-Bazemore.jpg
24-Evan-Fournier.jpg
25-JR-Smith-SI137_TK1_09063.jpg
26-Courtney-Lee.jpg
27-Jordan-Clarkson-X160150_TK1_610.jpg
28-Luol-Deng.jpg
29-Evan-Turner-SI-230_TK1_0348.jpg
30-Jeremy-Lin-X160185_TK1_0227.jpg

Here’s a more whimsical approach to interior impact: Ever wonder which center has the biggest block differential? In other words, which big men registers the most blocks on defense and gets his own shot block the least on offense?

The following chart shows that Whiteside was indeed the block differential king—by a lot—last season. Remarkably, he blocked shots nearly seven times more often than his own shot was blocked. Zaza Pachulia, by contrast, had his own shot blocked more than twice as often as he registered a block.

source: imgur.com

Age again seems to be an issue for the likes of Nene and Al Jefferson. Drummond sticks out here as a player who should perform better given his youth and athletic tools.

dwight_howard_embed_.jpg

Scoring types

Many executives will enter free agency having pondered this key: “How much do we want to run our offense through a center?” Immediately, everyone will point to the 2016 Finals and note that the centers for both teams were complementary players who primarily contributed on offense in ways that didn’t involve ball dominance: play-making (Andrew Bogut), finishing (Ezeli and Tristan Thompson) and chaos (Anderson Varejao).

The following chart shows which centers get fed on the block a lot and how well they use those touches. Players in the upper right are efficient low-post scorers who are force-fed a lot while players in the upper left are efficient scorers who are used in lighter doses.

source: imgur.com

An early ranking of the top 15 NBA draft prospects for 2017

Teams eyeing Howard and Whiteside will need to be prepared to carve out major roles on offense for their incoming acquisitions. From a personnel standpoint, teams with high-usage guards and those that prefer a spread approach might find it tricky to fit in these pieces. Detroit, meanwhile, will need to continue to utilize Drummond in pick-and-rolls and hope that he can improve his one-on-one game in the post.