Detroit Lions' Most Overrated and Underrated Players
With the bulk of NFL free agency over, the NFL Draft all done and the 2020 schedule released, there is less and less talk about the past season, and more and more talk about the upcoming one.
Anytime the future is brought up, naturally, predictions are made.
Yes, predictions are meaningless -- just like grades immediately after the draft.
However, the banter, heated debates and prognoses are a big part of having fun in the sporting world right now.
Recently, there has been a post floating around social media for all 32 NFL teams, as to who each team’s most overrated, most underrated and breakout players are heading into the 2020 season. It’s an entertaining little exercise.
Here were my answers.
Now, before I’m greeted with more outrage, there needs to be some explanations to each of the selections -- and here they are.
Most overrated: RB D'Andre Swift
I realized this was probably the most controversial of all the names who were mentioned.
How can a rookie that has never seen the NFL field be considered overrated?
Short answer: the expectations that have been placed upon him in year one to be hugely productive.
As a result of the plethora of articles that have been published about Swift having some of the highest odds to be offensive rookie of the year, the multitude of conversations about him being a feature back from day one and the comparisons of him to Pro Bowl running backs, like Alvin Kamara, my perception is that Swift has become a little overvalued in the eyes of some.
Personally, I feel that a successful season for Swift will be in the ballpark of 650 rushing yards and 35 receptions.
Not a bad rookie season, but also not eye-popping numbers that will win him awards.
Remember, depending on how a couple of rookie offensive guards perform and how a new right tackle pans out, the offensive line is still a big question mark.
Kerryon Johnson and Bo Scarbrough are nice options -- when healthy -- in the backfield.
Important to note, Swift didn't record a ton of carries, and struggled with nagging injuries while at Georgia.
It won’t be an easy task for Swift to put up gaudy statistics in a running back-by-committee and behind an unproven line.
Secondly, a lot of common answers for the Lions' most overrated player on the roster often includes names like Jarrad Davis, Jesse James and others who no one really considers to be anything special.
In my mind, a player can’t be overrated if there isn’t a large faction of fans and pundits propping them up as something they are not.
In no way, however, am I already claiming Swift to be a bust.
There are plenty of quality traits to like about the running back who many had atop their draft board at the position.
I just think expectations have been running wild lately and maybe should be tempered.
Needless to say, I hope Swift crushes my rookie year projections, and he finally gives the Lions that elusive rushing attack they have been missing for years.
Most underrated: FS Duron Harmon
Another newcomer to the Lions, Harmon has been the third safety on the New England Patriots' defense for quite a while.
Considering how frequently the Patriots utilized three safeties, he was a pseudo starter in their defense.
For a player that is tied for the fifth-most interceptions by any safety in the NFL since 2017, you rarely ever hear Harmon’s name in conversations as one of the better ones in the league.
To me, that is someone who is exceeding expectations and is not receiving commensurate acclaim.
Best player: QB Matthew Stafford
This seems to be a no-brainer, with not much explanation being needed.
We all saw how the Lions fared after Stafford went down with a back injury in 2019.
Without Stafford, the Lions don’t stand much of a chance.
Key new addition: CB Jeff Okudah
I'm maybe taking the easy way out here by going with Okudah, the No. 3 overall pick in this year’s draft.
How can I have one rookie as a key addition and another as the most overrated?
The word I dialed in on was “key” new addition.
Okudah is likely to see 90-plus percent of the snaps on defense, while Swift will be lucky to see 50 percent of the offensive snaps. That’s quite the disparity.
In a coverage-based defensive scheme, Okudah will be a big reason why the Lions' defense either succeeds or struggles once again.
It’s not easy to cover for long periods of time, but that’s what the defensive backs are asked to do given the de-emphasis on quickly pressuring the quarterback in Detroit head coach Matt Patricia's scheme.
The Lions added plenty of veterans via free agency that could be considered big additions.
In saying this, they have plenty of NFL film, and there is already a good baseline for what type of players they are.
If Okudah can follow suit of the strong rookie seasons put together by some other recent highly-touted corners, he will clearly be Detroit's key new addition.
Could surprise: CB Amani Oruwariye
With the selection of Okudah and the addition of veteran Desmond Trufant, Oruwariye seems like the forgotten man.
He definitely had some rookie struggles a season ago.
At the same time, he flashed some serious ball-hawking potential.
It would appear the Lions didn’t have a ton of confidence in Oruwariye last season, as they demoted him back behind Rashaan Melvin once Melvin returned from injury.
If Oruwariye can clean up some of his blatant coverage lapses from a year ago, the skill set is there for him to be a real nice player.
Takes a leap: TE T.J. Hockenson
The tight end position takes time to develop -- history backs that statement.
It still could be a year or two early, but Hockenson has all the tools to be one of the best tight ends in the game.
There was a reason he was drafted No. 8 overall in 2019 at a position that is not considered often to be worthy of a top-10 pick.
Fortunately, for Hockenson, he gave glimpses of what he is capable of in Week 1 last season against the Arizona Cardinals.
Perhaps one of his biggest hurdles to overcome will be the run-heavy scheme deployed by Lions offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell.
It’s tough to put up great production if targets aren't consistently going your way.
He will need to take full advantage of his opportunities.
Prove-it-year player: RB Kerryon Johnson
I went back and forth between Johnson and Davis here.
Ultimately, Johnson was the player I decided to choose for this category.
With Davis’ fifth-year option being declined, he is now in a contract season.
Yes, there is plenty to prove for Davis, but it typically doesn’t take a linebacker four years to develop. I think what you see is what you get with Davis at this point.
Perhaps that could change, but I’m not counting on some grand transformation from one year to the next for him, though.
For Johnson, he needs to prove he can stay healthy and find that rookie year magic.
Even before his meniscus tear that landed him on injured reserve in 2019, he wasn’t producing at the same impressive rate that he was in 2018.
Running backs typically have a short shelf life in the NFL.
With a potential long-term replacement being drafted this year in Swift, it’s imperative that Johnson can regain the form that was on full display in his first NFL season.
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