Packers on List of Teams That ‘Actually’ Could Win Super Bowl

Sports Illustrated’s Conor Orr loves the Packers’ potential to overwhelm opposing offensive lines.

Author:
Bill Huber
Updated:
Jul 18, 2022 6:12 PM EDT
Original:
Jul 18, 2022

In this story:

GREEN BAY, Wis. – It’s mid-July and optimism flows like water from the Amazon.

Every team is undefeated. Every draft class is filled with studs. Every free-agent addition will fill key weaknesses. Every schematic tweak will be the perfect anecdote.

Of course, as Mike Tyson said, “Everyone’s got a plan until they get punched in the face.”

With quarterback Aaron Rodgers, running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, and a potentially powerful defense, the Packers have a lot of ways to punch their opponent in the face with jabs, hooks and upper cuts. That’s why they’re one of 13 teams listed by Sports Illustrated’s Conor Orr in his annual list of teams that “actually” can win the Super Bowl.

“The Packers are going to find themselves on any list of legitimate postseason contenders, even though each postseason in the Matt LaFleur era has seen some unique playoff blunders, be it their defensive unpreparedness in two years or special teams unpreparedness in another,” Orr wrote.

“This offseason, Green Bay fortified its roster with the drafting of two key defensive players out of Georgia: Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt. Wyatt is a dominant interior presence and, when paired with Green Bay’s edge talent, should eviscerate most of the competition in the conference, given that most teams standing in the Packers’ way don’t possess the depth of offensive line talent to counter what Green Bay can now do.”

Orr’s list is short of NFC teams, which should help the Packers’ chances in the postseason. The Packers are joined by the Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams among Orr’s primary dozen teams – led by the Bucs, those four teams have the shortest odds to win the No. 1 seed at FanDuel Sportsbook – and the Philadelphia Eagles are Orr’s wild card.

No other teams from the NFC North made the list, which is why Green Bay is an overwhelming -188 to win the division at SI Sportsbook. Two AFC teams with Packers ties – the Denver Broncos under new coach Nathaniel Hackett and the Las Vegas Raiders with receiver Davante Adams – did make the cut.

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20 Reasons Why Packers Will Win Super Bowl

1. Four-Time MVP Aaron Rodgers

Four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers got a tattoo. It’s filled with symbolism, though there’s no mention of a Super Bowl ring. Whatever. Maybe that Illuminati-style eye will help him see a receiver breaking open over the middle in the fourth quarter of a playoff game.

On a serious note, you have to look really hard to find any signs of age catching up to the 38-year-old Rodgers, who is coming off another magnificent season. In 2021, he had 13 games of multiple touchdown passes and zero interceptions, breaking the NFL record of 11 games that he tied in 2020. Rodgers posted a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 9.25 last season. That was the seventh-best in NFL history, just behind his sixth-place 9.60 from 2020. He owns six of the top 12 seasons of all-time in that category.

Now, if only Rodgers could deliver a signature performance in late January and February to get that long-sought second Super Bowl win before the sand in his football hourglass run out.

“The playing is easy. That’s the easy part. It’s the other part that’s a grind,” Rodgers said at minicamp of retirement. “You wear a lot of hats as a quarterback and it’s more than just playing on Sundays. At some point, the grind gets to all of us and every year. It seems like a slightly bigger commitment to come up to being the guy again in another season.

“But it just comes down to where I’m at. Obviously, I want the team to be successful. Obviously, I don’t want be a bum standing back there playing like crap and not able to move around, so if the talent goes, it’s a no-brainer, but it’s a little harder when you still can really play and the mental part is difficult.”

2. Potentially Powerful Defense

Hopes are sky-high for Green Bay’s defense – perhaps too high considering its woeful performance down the stretch last season.

It is a unit without a weak link in the starting lineup. There is a Pro Bowler on the defensive line with Kenny Clark. There is a Pro Bowler-in-waiting at outside linebacker with Rashan Gary. There is an All-Pro at inside linebacker with De’Vondre Campbell. There are three studs at cornerback with Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas and Eric Stokes. The safety tandem of Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage is strong and experienced.

Green Bay finished ninth in total defense and tied for 12th in points allowed last season. That’s pretty good. The return of Alexander, who missed most of last season with a shoulder injury, and the addition of first-round picks Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt could give Aaron Rodgers the powerful defense he’s lacked since the 2010 unit finished second in points allowed and helped deliver a Super Bowl victory.

3. Rich Bisaccia Leads We-fense

“We-fense” is what new coordinator Rich Bisaccia calls his special teams. Cheesy or not, anything that helps bring different results will be welcome.

As last year’s regular season played out, it seemed liked an inevitability that the special teams would cost the Packers a critical game. And, sure enough, in the playoff loss to San Francisco, there was a blocked field goal before halftime and the killer blocked punt that the 49ers scooped up for the game-deciding touchdown. It was a stunning ending. Yet, at the same time, there was nothing stunning about it.

After the game, Rodgers said, “We just would like to play even (on special teams). Make some plays, have a wash in the special teams. That’d be good.”

On average, since 2006, Bisaccia’s units have been 11.5 spots better than Green Bay in Rick Gosselin’s special teams rankings.

“When they get on the field, they’ve got a jersey number on. They’re accountable to the guy next to them, they’re accountable to their job,” Bisaccia said of his personality. “When they come into my office, then they’ve got a name. Now we can talk about football, we can talk about anything you want to talk about. But when they get on the field, they have a job to do, and they’re accountable to the guy next to them, in front of them, behind them and so on.

“In our one-play mentality, you can look around and there’s a lot of plays that devastate your game, and there’s a lot of plays that propel your offense or your defense in a game. I think once we can all understand the one-play mentality, what we’re trying to get across to them, how they can affect the game positively and negatively, I think maybe we’ll start to accomplish something here.”

4. Weakness of NFC North

You can’t win the Super Bowl without getting to the playoffs. Residing in the NFC North means an easier path to the playoffs than, say, the four teams playing in the juggernaut AFC West. Last year, the Packers finished the regular season with 13 wins; the other three teams combined for 17. Entering this season, the Packers are -170 to win the NFC North at FanDuel SportsBook. They’re even a bigger favorite at SI Sportsbook, a commanding -188.

Of course, Green Bay has an advantage at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers vs. the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins, the Bears’ Justin Fields and the Lions’ Jared Goff. But look at the disparity on defense, with Chicago finishing 22nd in points allowed, the Vikings 24th and the Lions 31st.

A division title means at least one home playoff game. Of course, playing at home – and getting cold, snowy conditions – didn’t mean a thing against the 49ers last year, but it’s still an advantage.

5. Return of David Bakhtiari

Coach Matt LaFleur ended the offseason by saying the team “full anticipate(s)” left tackle David Bakhtiari will be on the field for the start of training camp.

That would be huge. Bakhtiari is a five-time All-Pro at one of the most important positions in football. Having suffered a torn ACL on the practice field on New Year’s Eve 2020, Bakhtiari’s challenging comeback included 23 snaps at Detroit in Week 18 and a spot on the sideline for the playoffs.

When the history of the Aaron Rodgers era is written, Bakhtiari’s injury will merit a prominent mention. Had Bakhtiari been available for the 2020 NFC Championship Game, would the Packers have given up five sacks in a five-point loss to the Buccaneers? Had Bakhtiari been available for the 2021 playoffs, would the Packers have beaten the 49ers and advanced to another NFC Championship Game?

If Bakhtiari can return to form – a big if, obviously – that might make the biggest difference in the offense’s ability to reload without Davante Adams.

6. Return of Jaire Alexander

When Jaire Alexander suffered a shoulder injury in Week 4 against Pittsburgh, it could have been a crippling blow. Instead, general manager Brian Gutekunst found a surprise star in Rasul Douglas.

With Alexander, Douglas and 2021 first-round pick Eric Stokes, the Packers might have the best trio of cornerbacks in the NFL. According to Sports Info Solutions, among cornerbacks who started at least nine games in 2021, Douglas ranked third in the NFL with a 44.6 percent completion rate. Stokes wasn’t far behind, ranking seventh with a 46.2 percent completion rate. In 2020, Alexander was No. 1 at 42.3 percent.

“It’s going to be cool,” Alexander said. “I tell Stokes, he needs to be the best in the league. I know I’m the best in the league but what would I be like telling him not to be the best? Or Rasul not to be the best? That would be selfish. I just tell them, ‘Just be the best.’ We’re both going to be the best and, the next you know, all three of us are going to be the best.”

The NFL is a quarterback-driven league. To have any legitimate chance at winning a Super Bowl, teams need a top quarterback. Therefore, it stands to reason that a team with the ability to stop those quarterbacks also has a good shot at winning a Super Bowl. With Aaron Rodgers throwing touchdown passes for the Packers and Alexander, Douglas and Stokes preventing the other team from throwing touchdown passes, Green Bay should be in a strong position in every game.

7. Return of Robert Tonyan

In 2020, tight end Robert Tonyan was a breakout star with 52 receptions for 586 yards and 11 touchdowns. Last season, he suffered a torn ACL in Week 8 at Arizona, a huge blow to the offense. Marcedes Lewis, Josiah Deguara, Dominique Dafney and Tyler Davis combined to catch 52 passes for 528 yards and two touchdowns.

With Tonyan, Green Bay’s got one of the best fleet of tight ends in the NFL because it’s got a receiver (Tonyan), a blocker (Lewis) and a versatile weapon (Deguara and Dafney). Tonyan’s playmaking ability is an irreplaceable part of the equation.

There’s a good chance Tonyan will be on the field for Week 1 – or not long thereafter. With his excellent hands and connection with Aaron Rodgers, he will be a big factor in the team replacing the production of Davante Adams.

“We look for a bounce-back year from Bobby when he’s healthy,” Rodgers said.

8. Turnovers

The Packers dominated the turnover table under former coach Mike McCarthy, and that trend has continued under coach Matt LaFleur.

During his three seasons, the Packers are a league-best plus-32 in turnovers. Last season, the Packers finished third at plus-13.

Winning the turnover battle means winning football games. In regular-season play, the Packers are a staggering 30-0 when it’s at least plus-1 in turnovers, and they’re 34-1 when recording at least two takeaways. Those stats come with one enormous asterisk: The Packers forced three turnovers and were plus-1 in losing the 2020 NFC Championship Game to the Buccaneers.

It helps that Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in NFL history at avoiding turnovers. With Rodgers generally not throwing the football to the guys in the wrong-colored jersey, Green Bay has recorded a league-high 28 games without a turnover during LaFleur’s tenure.

9. Big-Play Aaron Jones

For a team short on proven receivers, the Packers are fortunate to have an excellent pass-catching running back with Aaron Jones. Over the last three seasons, Jones is one of eight running backs with three consecutive seasons of 1,000-plus yards from scrimmage. Jones, Dallas’ Ezekiel Elliott and New Orleans’ Alvin Kamara are the only backs with three consecutive seasons of 1,000 total yards and 40 receptions.

Jones and two of the NFL’s legendary running backs, Hall of Famers Jim Brown of Cleveland and Jim Taylor of Green Bay, are the only players in NFL history with at least 4,000 rushing yards, 40-plus rushing touchdowns and a 5.0-yard average in their first five seasons. Plus, among all running backs in NFL history with at least 800 rushing attempts, Jones ranks sixth with a 5.06 yards per attempt – better than Gale Sayers and Barry Sanders.

10. Powerful AJ. Dillon

With the passing game entering training camp as the big unknown, the Packers are fortunate to have Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon as a proven one-two punch in the backfield.

The Packers drafted the powerful Dillon to consistently gain significant chunks of yardage. He did that last season, ranking No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ success rate. He’s not just 3 yards and pile of chicken wings, though. After catching only 21 passes in three seasons at Boston College, Dillon caught 34 last year. Of 40 running backs to be targeted with at least 30 passes, Dillon’s 91.9 percent catch rate ranked third and his 9.2 yards after the catch per catch ranked eighth, according to PFF. He had just one drop.

“Coming in, I was always the big back who’s only good for third-and-short, so I really want to be and I think of myself as an APB, an all-purpose back, no matter what the situation,” Dillon said recently. “I feel like last year was a good start, a good foothold if you will, but there’s still a couple opportunities I wish I had caught the ball and been in better placement or ran a route better. So, I’m happy with the improvement but obviously still working on it.”

11. NFL Draft Class of 2021

Given the Packers’ cap problems and the corresponding limitations in free agency, it’s critical that general manager Brian Gutekunst knocks it out of the park in the draft.

The Class of 2021 has the potential to be really, really good.

First-round cornerback Eric Stokes had a superb rookie season. Aside from a November loss at Minnesota, Stokes covered at a winning level every week. He tackled well, especially in a late-season game at Baltimore, when the Ravens got nothing out of a barrage of short passes thrown Stokes’ way. If not for his league-worst four dropped interceptions, he might have earned All-Rookie recognition.

“It definitely gave me a little more confidence to where I know more about the game and I know little stuff to slow it down,” he said. “I just can’t wait to see how it’s going to go when camp starts.”

Second-round center Josh Myers barely played due to injury and third-round receiver Amari Rodgers barely played due to the addition of Randall Cobb. If they reach expectations, fourth-round guard Royce Newman continues his strong play from the second half of the season and fifth-round defensive tackle TJ Slaton can be a force against the run, this could wind up being a big-time group.

Myers, Newman and Jon Runyan, a sixth-round pick in 2020, form the young, ascending interior of Green Bay’s offensive line.

12. NFL Draft Class of 2022

General manager Brian Gutekunst traded his way into having three of the top 34 picks in the 2022 NFL Draft.

Who knows how those picks will turn out but the potential is intriguing.

The No. 22 overall pick, linebacker Quay Walker, has an outrageous combination of size and speed. With Devin White and Lavonte David manning the inside linebacker positions, the Buccaneers have the best of both worlds with size to stop the run but athleticism to cover the pass. They played dime (six defensive backs) on just 2 percent of their defensive snaps last year, tied for the lowest rate in the NFL, according to Sports Info Solutions. The Packers played dime on 24 percent of their defensive snaps, the sixth-highest rate.

If Walker pans out, he and De’Vondre Campbell will provide a Bucs-style linebacker pairing that will give defensive coordinator Joe Barry a lot of options on how to line up.

The No. 28 pick, defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt, has the potential to be a three-down contributor alongside Kenny Clark.

“He can be really good on first and second down and he’s an inside guy that has some unique traits as a pass rusher,” defensive line coach Jerry Montgomery said. “Some things you can’t teach, you just naturally have. He’s got twitch. I’d like to call it awkward movements, some movements he can be out in that other guys can’t be and he can recover from those things. And he’s got a high motor, just a naturally high motor. So, really, really good defensive line traits.”

Like Walker, the No. 34 pick, receiver Christian Watson, has an incredible physical skill-set. Watson and fellow rookie Romeo Doubs, a fourth-round choice, have an enormous opportunity to be immediate contributors.

“He’s going to be a problem once he figures things out,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich predicted of Watson at the start of offseason practices.

13. Kenny Clark and Powerful D-Line

Kenny Clark anchors what could be the best unit on Green Bay’s roster.

A Pro Bowler in 2019 and 2021, Clark is coming off a season in which he finished fourth among interior defensive linemen with 67 pressures. He is a rare three-down difference-maker. Incredibly, the seventh-year pro is only 26.

With Clark and fellow 2016 draft pick Dean Lowry, free-agent addition Jarran Reed, first-round pick Devonte Wyatt and promising second-year player TJ Slaton, the Packers could have a ferocious five-man rotation capable of setting up second-and-longs and third-down pressures that feed into a playmaking secondary.

“Come on. He’s one of the best defensive tackles in the league,” Reed said of Clark. “I like his game a lot. We’ve become really close. I hang with him almost every day. Just coming in, hopefully we can jell and be like the Bash Brothers or something.”

14. Rising Star Rashan Gary

A first-round pick in 2019 based almost solely on traits, Rashan Gary is on the verge of stardom. Relentless and powerful, he is coming off a season of 9.5 sacks and 28 quarterback hits. According to the official league stats, Gary finished seventh in the NFL in quarterback hits. According to Pro Football Focus, he finished third in the NFL (and second among edge rushers) with 86 total pressures.

“I want to be the best at my position,” Gary said. “When you say things like that [being a star], that’s where I want to be is be able to be top of the categories and things. But my No. 1 thing is bringing a ring back. So, I’m not really into all that, how people are looking at me. I’m into whatever I’ve got to do for this team so we can bring back the ring.”

With Gary and Preston Smith, the Packers have a superb pair of outside linebackers. The key in training camp will be finding a reliable third option.

15. All-Pro De’Vondre Campbell

Where would the Packers have been last year if not for the June signing of Campbell? The Packers might have entered the season lining up with Krys Barnes and Ty Summers as their inside linebackers. Instead, Campbell became the Packers’ first first-team All-Pro off-the-ball linebacker since Ray Nitschke in 1966.

Even while sitting out the meaningless Week 18 game at Detroit, Campbell finished seventh in the league with 145 tackles. He entered the finale with a league-high 101 solo tackles, and he was the only linebacker in the NFL with 100-plus tackles and at least two sacks, two forced fumbles and two interceptions.

According to Sports Info Solutions, 30 linebackers recorded at least 100 tackles. Of that group, Campbell ranked second with 4.5 yards allowed per target in the passing game and first with a missed tackle rate of 3.3 percent.

While trading Davante Adams was a major blow to the offense, re-signing Campbell was a critical boost to the defense.

“Obviously, he did what he did on the field, but all the things he brings to the table, just from consistency, leadership, production,” defensive coordinator Joe Barry said at the start of OTAs. “This is a production-based league. He’s a great example.

“I tell young guys, I tell Isaiah McDuffie all the time, ‘If you’re ever confused on how to act or what to do, watch 59 in every aspect. Watch him in meetings. Watch him in walkthroughs. Watch him in practice. Watch him just in the halls here.’ He’s always got his iPad. He’s always looking at football. I’m really, really happy for De’Vondre. He said it and I firmly believe it. I still think he has his best football in front of him. It was huge to get him back, just for everything, for our team, for our locker room, of course, for our defense, our huddle. He’s a stud.”

16. ‘Return’ of Mason Crosby

Veteran kicker Mason Crosby is coming off a terrible season. Statistically, he was one of the worst kickers in the NFL.

Given his track record – he had made 38-of-40 field-goal attempts the previous two seasons – his troubles last year likely were rooted in all the trouble that surrounded him. There was the end-of-camp change in holders with the addition of punter Corey Bojorquez. There was the midseason change at long snapper, with Steven Wirtel not exactly solidifying that key part of the operation. There were the constant protection issues, which reared their ugly head in the playoff loss to the 49ers.

There is a new special teams coordinator (Rich Bisaccia) and a new holder (veteran punter Pat O’Donnell). Crosby and O’Donnell hit it off quickly – they lived together after O’Donnell signed in free agency – to hopefully forge important chemistry to get Crosby back on top of his game.

“It was awesome having them in the house and, honestly, spending three weeks together that close was like getting to know him for three years,” Crosby, who ranks 14th in NFL history in scoring, said. “We just kind of learned the rhythms of how we operate. Seeing the things he does on and off the field, it’s been good for me to just kind of continue to learn and grow as well. He’s a pro’s pro. I love how he operates and so, I’m excited to continue to grow in that relationship and moving into the season.”

17. Lambeau Field

Under coach Matt LaFleur, the Packers are an incredible 22-2 on their home turf. During that span, Pittsburgh has the second-best home record, a distant 18-6-1. Aaron Rodgers and turnovers have been the key to that success.

Of course, the home success hasn’t translated to the playoffs with back-to-back postseason losses to the Buccaneers and the 49ers. Still, their power at Lambeau Field should help them get to the postseason, which is the obvious first step to winning the Super Bowl.

18. Playing with Discipline

It’s hard to win in the NFL. So, it’s important to not make things more difficult than they need to be.

The Packers not only had a league-best 13 giveaways, but they were guilty of a league-low 4.11 penalties per game. Penalties and winning aren’t always tied hand in hand, but the Rams were second in penalties (4.29) and won the Super Bowl and the Bengals were third in penalties (4.43) and reached the Super Bowl.

19. The Schedule (Maybe)

With games at Tampa Bay and Buffalo, the Packers’ schedule offers plenty of challenges. However, if they can survive until their Week 14 bye, they’ve got a chance to build some momentum for the playoffs.

The final four games: home against the Rams following a week of rest, at Miami and home against Minnesota and Detroit. Goodness knows the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye – despite the advantages that come with those prizes – don’t mean much in the pursuit of a Super Bowl. The Packers’ best hope is to be playing their best football headed into the middle of January. A late bye and the closing schedule might provide that opportunity.

20. Less Pressure on Rodgers

At least to start the season, this won’t be the best group surrounding Aaron Rodgers on offense. But he could be surrounded by the best overall team.

For years, the pressure has been on Rodgers to carry the load. That might not be the case this year. The defense should be really good, maybe even great. The special teams should be considerably improved. If David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins are on the field for the stretch run, the offensive line should be excellent.

“I think our defense is going to be tough,” Rodgers said. “Watching a lot of college football, you knew that defense was pretty damn good, so adding those kids is going to help. Bringing back Rasul, I thought, was a big piece for us. I’m excited about that. Defensively, there will be high expectations. The biggest jump is (special) teams, and Rich is an interesting personality, for sure. I think he’s going to be bring a lot to our special teams. I’m excited about watching those guys work.”

If it all goes according to plan, Rodgers might not have to carry a leaky defense and shoddy special teams atop his shoulders. That would be good, because he’s been unable to do it.

“Daily excellence is our goal,” defensive coordinator Joe Barry said. “I tell the defense all the time, if you can walk out of this building 1 percent better than you walked in it -- and it sounds maybe kind of corny or cheesy -- but I think if you take that mentality every single day, it’s so important.

“When your captains, your best players, are your hardest-working players and they’re the most consistent players, that trickles down. I think it’s so great that we have guys that, they look back at last year and even though from a team standpoint it was brutal, devastating, we didn’t hoist the Lombardi Trophy, so in our mind it’s a failure as a team, but when you do look at the specifics of the way we played, we played good. But our goal is to play great and our goal is to play great every single week, and we’ve got a bunch of guys in that locker room that have that mindset and we’re chomping at the bit to get started.”

You never know what’s going to happen with injuries, but all the pieces could be in place for this team to be a real three-phase juggernaut for the playoffs.