14 Days Until Training Camp: Packers Running Backs Preview

Can’t pass the ball as effectively? Then perhaps the Packers should lean on their top running back duo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Jul 13, 2022 9:51 AM EDT

In this story:

Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Aaron Jones is a legit No. 1 running back. So is AJ Dillon. With the first practice of training camp set for July 27, here is a preview of the running backs.

Packers Running Backs Depth Chart

Aaron Jones failed to record his third consecutive season of 1,000 rushing yards but did top 1,000 total yards again. He rushed for 799 yards (4.7 average) and four touchdowns and added 52 receptions for 391 yards (7.5 average) and six touchdowns. Notably, he went from 5.5 yards per rush and 5.9 yards per touch in 2020 to 4.7 yards per rush and 5.3 yards per touch in 2021, but he ranked sixth among backs in receptions and second in receiving touchdowns.

AJ Dillon led the Packers with 803 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. Where he was a surprise standout was finishing fourth on the team with 34 receptions, which he turned into 313 yards (9.2 average) and two touchdowns. He ranked No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ success rate, a metric that matches Green Bay’s grading system.

Patrick Taylor had a disappointing training camp and opened the season on the practice squad. But, when he got his chance late in the season, he delivered. In the finale against Detroit, Taylor rushed 11 times for 53 yards (4.8 average). In a total of 23 carries spread over four appearances, he forced six missed tackles and averaged 3.0 yards after contact.

Kylin Hill, a seventh-round rookie, beat out Taylor to be the No. 3 running back. He carried 10 times for 24 yards (2.4 average; long of 8) and caught one pass for 5 yards. He didn’t break any tackles and averaged 1.9 yards after contact. To get the ball in his hands, he was given a shot on kickoff returns. He averaged 19.9 yards and suffered a torn ACL.

B.J. Baylor is an undrafted rookie from Oregon State. Buried on the depth chart for most of his career, he burst onto the scene as a fifth-year senior with a Pac-12-leading 1,337 yards (5.9 average) and 13 touchdowns. According to Pro Football Focus, of the 72 backs with at least 150 carries last season, Baylor was 53rd with 0.65 yards per pass route but 27th with 3.48 yards after contact per carry.

Tyler Goodson is an undrafted rookie from Iowa. A key player all three seasons, he rushed for 2,551 yards and caught 70 passes for an additional 565 yards. According to PFF, of the 72 backs with 150-plus carries last season, Goodson ranked 12th with 1.30 yards per pass route but 70th with 2.35 yards after contact on runs. Three of his nine 100-yard rushing games came against Nebraska.

Leader of the Pack

Sometimes, it’s easy to miss greatness – even when it’s right front of your face. Three running backs in NFL history had at least 4,000 rushing yards, 40 rushing touchdowns and a 5.0-yard average in their first five seasons. Hall of Famers Jim Brown and Jim Taylor are two. Aaron Jones is the third. For his career, Jones has averaged 5.06 yards per carry. Among all running backs with at least 800 career carries, Jones’ average ranks sixth – just behind Brown and just ahead of legends Gale Sayers and Barry Sanders. In 2017, Jones was the 19th of 30 running backs selected. He is fourth in rushing yards and seventh in receiving yards. On first down last year, he averaged a robust 5.28 yards per carry – fourth-best among all backs with 50-plus attempts.

Rising Star

There wasn’t a lot of style to AJ Dillon’s game. He had the lowest 10-yard run rate in the NFL by a wide margin. In his 79 carries over the final six games, he had just one 10-yard run (11 yards vs. Chicago). But there was a lot of substance. On third- and fourth-and-1, he converted 10-of-12. That 83.3 percent success rate ranked No. 2 among all running backs with at least 10 tries (Chiefs’ Darrel Williams, 9-of-10; 90 percent). Meanwhile, on first down, his 4.78 average ranked ninth out of 24 backs with at least 90 carries. If that’s not enough, according to PFF, 44 backs were targeted at least 35 times in passing game. Dillon ranked third in catch rate (91.9 percent) and eighth in YAC per catch (9.2).

The Training Camp Battle

Who will be the No. 3 back? Presumably, Kylin Hill won’t be back from last year’s torn ACL. That means Patrick Taylor will have to hold off undrafted rookies B.J. Baylor and Tyler Goodson. At the moment, Taylor seems the clear favorite based on his hard-charging performance at Detroit. Baylor wasn’t asked to catch the ball in college. That’s a critical element in coach Matt LaFleur’s offense. Goodson did catch the ball in college but he wasn’t much of a threat after contact. That’s where runners make their money in the NFL. With little reason to get Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon too involved in preseason games, that trio will get plenty of chances in August.

The Big Question

Can AJ Dillon be more explosive? Coming out of Boston College, Dillon drew obvious comparisons to Titans star Derrick Henry because of their brute power and prolific production. Last season, Henry rushed 219 times and had 20 runs of 10-plus yards, a rate of 9.1 percent. (It was 12.7 percent in 2020, when he rushed for 2,027 yards.) Dillon rushed 187 times and had nine runs of 10-plus yards, a league-worst rate of 4.8 percent. There were a few occasions when Dillon was one-on-one with the safety, with nothing but green grass between him and the goal line, but got stopped in his tracks. Big plays aren’t everything but, at the end of the day, defenses will be content to let Dillon hammer away for 4 or 5 yards a crack, secure in the belief they’ll eventually get one stop to put the offense behind the chains.

Best-Case Scenario

Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon combined for 2,550 total yards and 20 total touchdowns. They almost got there last season. Among running backs, Jones ranked 13th with 1,190 total yards and eighth with 10 total touchdowns, and Dillon ranked 18th with 1,116 total yards and 21st with seven total touchdowns. That’s 2,306 yards and 17 touchdowns. Getting to 2,550 total yards means they’d be contributing 150 yards per game. With the offseason trade of Davante Adams, there is a lot of production replace. Jones and Dillon are the best bets to get it done.

Worst-Case Scenario

Aaron Jones’ best days are behind him. There were some signs last year. In 2020, when he carried 201 times, he had 26 runs of 10-plus yards and averaged 3.54 yards after contact. In 2021, when he carried 171 times, he had 16 runs of 10-plus and averaged 3.18 yards after contact. To be sure, running behind a line with two rookie starters (Royce Newman and Josh Myers) and without two premier players (David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins) had a hand in the 10-yard run rate falling. Given the unsettled state of the passing game, this offense needs Jones to be at his best.

One Superb Stat

Aaron Jones is one of the NFL’s best all-around running backs. Jones and Ahman Green are the only running backs in Packers history with three consecutive seasons of 45-plus receptions and at least two touchdown receptions. Via the Packers’ season-ending Dope Sheet, Jones is one of five players in NFL history with 4,000-plus rushing yards, 40-plus rushing touchdowns, 150-plus receptions and 12-plus receiving touchdowns in his first five seasons. The others: Marcus Allen, Chuck Foreman, Todd Gurley and Alvin Kamara.

Over the last four seasons, Jones is seventh with 5,141 yards of total offense. Here are the seven running backs with 5,000 total yards during that span, with their yards per touch.

Ezekiel Elliott, 6,384 total yards, 4.85 yards per touch.

Derrick Henry, 6,136 total yards, 5.18 yards per touch.

Alvin Kamara, 5,947 total yards, 5.49 yards per touch.

Dalvin Cook, 5,875 total yards, 5.27 yards per touch.

Nick Chubb, 5,567 total yards, 5.57 yards per touch.

Christian McCaffrey, 5,516 total yards, 5.86 yards per touch.

Aaron Jones, 5,141 total yards, 5.62 yards per touch.