What the Numbers Say About Steelers QB Mitchell Trubisky
Mitchell Trubisky inked a 2-year $14 million deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers that can escalate to $27 million by hitting undisclosed incentives.
There was smoke around this being a potential pairing for a while now, particularly down in Indianapolis during NFL Combine week. With Ben Roethlisberger retiring after 18 years in the steel city, they’ll lean on the former second-overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.
So, what are the Steelers getting in the former Bears quarterback?
Under Center
Despite working in an almost shotgun exclusive offense in college at North Carolina, Trubisky has been surprisingly much better under center in the NFL. From 2017-2020 in Chicago, his numbers under center were:
*All statistics from Per Sports Info Solutions
- 159/248
- 2,108 yards
- 8.5 yards per attempt
- 13 touchdowns
- 3 interceptions
- 103.36 passer rating
If you’ve watched the Steelers recently in the last decade or so, you’ve noticed that Roethlisberger was frequently working out of the shotgun. But given that Matt Canada’s stops in college featured under center, looks and Trubisky’s impressive numbers under center, changes could be coming soon.
Play-action
Speaking of being under center, one of the perks of operating in this manner is that it opens up more of the play-action passing game. This is something that Trubisky has excelled at the professional level. He posted a 100 or better passing rating on play-action throws in three of his four seasons in Chicago with 2019 being the lone exception.
Due to Roethlisberger hardly ever being under center, the Steelers haven’t done much of anything in terms of play action since Bruce Arians “retired.”
With Trubisky stepping in, you should see a healthy dose of this moving forward in order to maximize his skill set. Look for plenty of QB rollouts especially to the right side of the field next season.
QB Mobility
The 2018 season was by far Trubisky’s best as a pro and during that season, he rushed for 413 yards on 67 carries and a couple scores. That was good for fifth-most in the NFL among quarterbacks.
He doesn’t specialize in making people miss or running through tacklers but he’s got enough juice to get out of the pocket to make a play.
Maybe more impressive is the fact that on those 67 carries, he only fumbled once. For comparison sake, Lamar Jackson fumbled 9 times on 145 carries that year.
Trubisky has the legs to buy himself extra time in the pocket or to tuck the ball and run, something that has been missing since Father Time caught up to Ben Roethlisberger.
Deep ball accuracy
Despite the positives above, there’s a reason that the former North Carolina Tarheel was available this offseason for cheap. One of the biggest weaknesses in his game is his woeful deep ball accuracy.
While it’s been a pretty consistent theme over the course of his career as he’s completed just under 30% of his passing attempts over 20 yards down the field, things hit rock bottom in 2020.
Completing only 5 of his 28 deep ball attempts certainly had a factor into him being benched in favor of Nick Foles. While he has the arm strength to push the ball down the field, his lower body mechanics have been an issue dating back to his Chapel Hill days.
The Steelers offense just didn’t create many explosive plays on the ground or through the air last season and it’s tough to see this move bringing notable improvements.
Crunch Time
If there was one area where Roethlisberger proved that he still had “it” last season, it was in the clutch. He led the NFL in game winning drives with seven, including one in the regular season finale against the Baltimore Ravens to get the Steelers into the postseason.
Despite his physical limitations, he was still the same guy when it mattered late in games.
This has been a weakness for Trubisky in his career. Through his first five seasons, he’s 5-14 in fourth quarter comeback opportunities and 7-15 in game winning drive opportunities. Filling a Hall of Fame QB’s shoes is tough but he’s going to have to prove that he can depended on with the game on the line.
Throwing Left
After looking through some of the positives and negatives, we now move on to just the plain weird. Trubisky is a likely historical outlier in terms of where he throws the football. It’s actually quite hilarious and borderline unexplainable beyond the fact that he’s just right handed.
He’s almost twice as likely to throw to his right than he is to his left. During his time in Chicago, he threw 412 passes to his right and only 223 to his left. There are times on film where he literally refuses to even scan that side of the field.
This won’t affect one specific receiver as the Steelers move their guys around quite a bit and aren’t glued to one side. It’s just a very bizarre stat that really makes him one of a kind.
Reaction
Overall, this signing can be described as low risk. Trubisky isn’t likely to be some reclamation project despite what some would hope for, but he can be a game manager in the short term. The goal for the Steelers next season needs to be to run the football effectively to get a lead, play really good defense and cater to Trubisky’s strengths while limiting his responsibilities.
Sounds easy enough, right? Well, that’s what should have happened last season for Roethlisberger but those conditions simply weren’t met as the Steelers were an inefficient running team with a poor, banged up defense.
At the very least, Trubisky has one NFL season in which he proved to be a competent NFL quarterback, which is more than you could say about the other signal callers on Pittsburgh’s roster.
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