Stars Haven't Lost Control

Despite losing Game 5, the Dallas Stars are still in control of their second-round series against the Winnipeg Jets.

May 15, 2025; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; Dallas Stars goalie Jake Oettinger (29) makes a save as Winnipeg Jets forward Brandon Tanev (73) looks for a rebound during the third period in game five of the second round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Canada Life Centre. Mandatory Credit: Terrence Lee-Imagn Images / Terrence Lee-Imagn Images

The Winnipeg Jets survived the Dallas Stars' first attempt to eliminate them in their second-round series. The Jets dominated the Stars, defeating them 4-0 and guaranteeing that a Game 6 will be played.

Despite the Jets' victory, the Stars still control this series. They've been the better all-around team, from goaltending to scoring chance generation, and that didn't change in Game 5. Sure, the Jets brought more desperation and intensity and were rewarded for their efforts.

What the Jets didn't do in their latest win was dominate the pace of play or create the lion's share of scoring chances. The eye test showed these two teams were going back and forth for most of the game, but a few lucky bounces went Winnipeg's way and were the difference.

According to MoneyPuck's game data, that isn't too far off. The Jets' cumulative expected goals for were 4.38. However, the Stars were not far behind, generating an expected goals figure of 3.61.

While the score was 4-0, the game was far from lopsided. The Jets were far better than they had been, and that improvement is worth noting and celebrating. Their starting goalie, Connor Hellebuyck, also bounced back superbly to shut out the Stars.

The problem is that the Stars had a "bad" game, and it wasn't all that bad. They were still generating offensive chances, and their goaltender gave up one goal that he'd like back, but aside from that, he was solid. The Stars' penalty kill allowed two power-play goals from high-danger areas, and they were daggers in Dallas' attempt to eliminate the Jets.

The Jets earned some confidence with their Game 5 win, but any hope that this win will fuel a series comeback is misplaced. The Stars are still firmly in control and likely heading to the Western Conference Finals for a rematch with the Edmonton Oilers.

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