Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Outfielders (Tier 11)

Shawn Childs | Feb 17, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Jake McCarthy / Allan Henry-Imagn Images

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We continue to rank the top outfielders entering the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Let's break down the next tier:

51 – Jake McCarthy, ARI (ADP – 223.9)

McCarthy tripped me up in drafts over the past two seasons. His minor league resume (.299 over 1,080 at-bats with 201 runs, 34 home runs, 169 RBIs, and 94 stolen bases) painted a high-floor five-category player. When adding a good approach (walk rate – 9.3 and strikeout rate – 19.6), his profile screamed a top-of-the-order-bat.

When the Diamondbacks needed an outfield bat in May of 2022, they recalled McCarthy, creating some waiver wire buzz for teams looking for steals. After 18 games (.278/13/2/8/1 over 54 at-bats), Arizona shipped him back to AAA. McCarthy became an excellent addition to fantasy teams over his final 68 games (.302/37/5/34/22 over 242 at-bats) after getting called back up on July 11th.

In 2023, McCarthy ended up being a fantasy bust. He struggled over 22 games in April (.143/8/1/3/2 over 63 at-bats with Arizona), leading to a demotion. His bat rebounded at AAA (.333 with 17 runs, four home runs, 17 RBIs, and four steals over 90 at-bats). The Diamondbacks gave him plenty of chances over the next two and a half months (.278/25/1/11/24 over 194 at-bats), but he failed to help in the home runs and RBIs. A trip back to AAA led to winning stats again (.383 with 25 runs, four home runs, and 11 stolen bases over 107 at-bats). McCarthy offered nothing over his final 19 at-bats (.211 with four runs and two RBIs) with Arizona. His combined stats (minor and majors) for the year came to a .292 batting average with 79 runs, 11 home runs, 52 RBIs, and 43 steals over 473 at-bats.

Last season, he set career-highs in plate appearances (495), at-bats (442), runs (66), hits (126), and RBIs (56). The Diamondbacks used him as a rotational player in at-bats over the first four months (April – 63, May – 54, June – 70, and July – 58). Over this span, he hit .294 with 39 runs, three home runs, 24 RBIs, and 15 steals over 245 at-bats. His bat flashed in August (.311/17/5/26/5 over 103 at-bats), followed by an empty final month (.234 with 10 runs, no home runs, six RBIs, and five stolen bases over 94 at-bats). His batting average (.284) was viable against left-handed pitching while ranking low in runs (15), home runs (0), and RBIs (15).

He posted a career-low strikeout rate (15.8), with a slight step back in his walk rate (6.3). His exit velocity (84.4 mph) and walk rate (24.5) represent a light-hitting bat that doesn’t match up with his stature (6’2” and 215 lbs.). McCarthy has a groundball swing path (50.4%), leading to a low fly-ball rate (29.1).

Fantasy Outlook: The dilemma to answer about McCarthy this season comes between his minor profile (potential .300/100/17/85/47 player) and his limp power bat with the Diamondbacks and questionable opportunity. He ranked seventh in sprint speed (29.8) in 2024, giving an unknown ceiling in stolen bases. His on-the-field battle for at-bats is with Alek Thomas. A total wild card, but a player that could surprise in all areas if given 550 at-bats. McCarthy is just hitting the price of his career, so don’t lose track of his play in spring training and the coach-speak about his playing time in 2025.

52 – TJ Friedl, CIN (ADP – 251.7)

Friedl made 126 starts in centerfield in 2023, leading to a productive five-category season (.279/73/18/66/27 over 488 at-bats). He spent two trips on the injury list over the first half of the year with oblique and hamstring issues. Over his final 40 games, his bat (.293 with 26 runs, eight home runs, 20 RBIs, and five steals over 140 at-bats) helped fantasy teams move up the standings. Friedl was at his best against left-handed pitching (.354 with three home runs and 12 RBIs over 96 at-bats). His best production (13 home runs and 41 RBIs) came at home.

A mid-March right wrist strain led to Friedl starting the season on the injured list for 38 days. He suffered a broken thumb a week later, leading to another 16 games out of action. His back luck (hamstring issue) continued about three weeks later (32 days on the IL).

Cincinnati Reds center fielder TJ Friedl / Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Friedl played well over his short at-bats (67) in June (.239/12/4/13/4). He hit .230 over his final 200 at-bats with 21 runs, nine home runs, 39 RBIs, and three stolen bases. His bat had less value against left-handed pitching (.209/7/2/13/4 over 67 at-bats).

His strikeout rate (15.3) aligned with his career average while posting a slightly below-league-average walk rate (7.6). Friedl had career-low exit velocity (86.0 mph) while increasing his weak hard-hit rate (31.5). He has a fly-ball swing path (45.4%) with a slight increase in his HR/FB rate (11.9).

Fantasy Outlook: His high number of injuries is a factor in his draft capital in 2025, but his production over the past two years (.259/108/31/121/36 over 785 at-bats) does fill multiple categories for his discounted price point. With 550 at-bats, Friedl has the foundation of stats to support a 77/22/85/25 season with some batting average risk. He’s worth a dart, especially in shallow leagues, as the replacement value in the free-agent pool is much higher than in 15-team formats.

53 – Jorge Soler, LAA (ADP – 225.9)

Over the past five seasons, Soler hit .233 with 284 runs, 105 home runs, 267 RBIs, and two stolen bases over 1,932 at-bats. These stats, broken down over 500 at-bats, paint him as a 73/27/69 hitter. His average hit rate (1.832) remains in an area to support 30+ home runs over 550 at-bats (a total he’s reached only once – 2019).

Outfielder Jorge Soler / Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

His strikeout rate (24.6) has been better than his career average (26.4) over the past two seasons while continuing to take plenty of walks (11.9%). Soler posted his highest two seasons in fly-ball rate in 2023 (46.3) and 2024 (46.1). He posted a six-year low in his exit velocity (90.5 mph) and hard-hit rate (43.7). His HR/FB rate (12.8) was his lowest since 2017.

Soler suffered a right shoulder injury in May, leading to two weeks on the injured list. He also missed time in August with a hamstring issue. His best production came in June (.284/21/3/15 over 95 at-bats). Soler was better after the All-Star break (.267/37/11/31/1 over 191 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook: The DH role should be the home for Soler in 2025 for the Angels, giving him a chance to be in the lineup for more games. His profile is pretty straightforward – some batting average risk with the swing to deliver a 75/25/75 season with 500 at-bats.

54 – George Springer, TOR (ADP – 231.7)

Toronto’s offense fell short of expectations in 2024 due to Bo Bichette's demise and Springer's fading bat. He finished with a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.279) while grading poorly in RBI rate (12) for the second consecutive year. His surprising uptick in stolen bases continued in 2024 (16-for-17), helping his base fantasy value. Springer ranked 114th in FPGscore (-1.18) for hitters, compared to 54th in 2023 (1.39).

His bat was a significant liability against left-handed pitching (.187/13/3/8/3 over 123 at-bats). From June through August, he hit .221 with 43 runs, 15 home runs, 43 RBIs, and seven stolen bases (7), painting a viable piece to a fantasy team for half the season. Springer missed time in May (illness) and September, leading to only one home run and eight RBIs over 146 at-bats.

He had a rebound in his walk rate (9.8) with a favorable strikeout rate (18.7). Springer finished with a career-low exit velocity (87.5 mph) and hard-hit rate (37.0) while turning into a groundball hitter (50.7%). His HR/FB rate (13.4) has been below his career average (19.0) over the past three years.

Most HR by a Blue Jay in 2024:

30 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
19 — George Springer
18 — Daulton Varsho
13 — Davis Schneider
12 — Ernie Clement, Spencer Horwitz

What will the TOP 5 look like in 2025? pic.twitter.com/gnK4iO8LcU
— BlueJays Muse (@TORBlueJaysMuse) February 17, 2025

Fantasy Outlook: The Blue Jays will give him leadoff at-bat again this year until another younger player emerges to unseat him. At age 35, the fantasy cliff is on the horizon, highlighted by his weaker swing path and the decline in spunk off his bat. I can’t dismiss a rebound in batting average with help fantasy help in four categories. A trick-or-treat player that I would rather take a dance with if Springer is severely discounted, leading to a different comparison in drafts.

55 – Garrett Mitchell, MLW (ADP – 258.0)

Milwaukee drafted Mitchell with the 20th selection in the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft. His bat played well over his first 92 at-bats at High A, leading to a .359 batting average with 33 runs, five home runs, 20 RBIs, and 12 stolen bases. After a promotion to AA in 2021, Mitchell looked overmatched at the plate (.186 with 16 runs, three home runs, 10 RBIs, and five steals over 129 at-bats) while striking out 27.7% of the time.

Milwaukee gave Mitchell 239 at-bats in 2022 at AA and AAA, leading to a .297 batting average with 44 runs, five home runs, 34 RBIs, and 16 steals. His contact batting average (.407) rose for the second straight season. With the Brewers, he helped fantasy teams over the final 15 games (15-for-35 with five runs, one home run, three RBIs, and five stolen bases).

Mitchell landed on the injured list in mid-April in 2023 with a labrum issue in his left shoulder that required surgery. Over his first 58 at-bats, he hit .259 with nine runs, three home runs, six RBIs, and one steal. The Brewers gave him seven at-bats late in September.

Last season, Mitchell suffered a broken left hand in late March, leading to three months off the Brewers’ roster. He spent 14 games in the minors (16-for-51 with nine runs, four home runs, 13 RBIs, and four stolen bases) before returning to the majors in early July. As a rotational player after the All-Star break, Mitchell hit .265 with 31 runs, seven home runs, 17 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases over 170 at-bats, putting him on a winning path if he repeated his stats over 500 at-bats. He went 9-for-33 against left-handed pitching with two runs, two RBIs, and 15 strikeouts.

Over his limited time with the Brewers, Mitchell has a high strikeout rate (34.3) that improved slightly in 2024 (31.1). His walk rate (11.2) was in a favorable area. He had a groundball swing path (55.8%) last season, leading to an extremely low fly-ball rate (22.5). When making hard contact, 29.6% of his fly-balls landed in the seats. His exit velocity (88.8) and hard-hit rate (37.0) remain well below the best hitters in the game.

Only three hitters had a bat speed > 75 mph (min 200 swings) and a sprint speed in the 90th percentile or higher...

Elly De La Cruz
Julio Rodriguez
Garrett Mitchell pic.twitter.com/HDrWD3P5DD
— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) February 10, 2025

Fantasy Outlook: Heading into 2025, Mitchell projects as a platoon player until his bat proves its worth against lefties. He doesn’t profile as a middle-of-the-order bat at this point of his career, and Milwaukee will surely bat Jackson Chourio and Christian Yelich in the top two spots in their lineup. His contact batting average with the Brewers (.431) offsets some of his batting average risk due to his high number of strikeouts. Mitchell plays well defensively while having the tools to offer a 20/30 profile if given 550 at-bats. I expect a better swing path this season, and his best fantasy value may come over the second half of the season.

51 – Jake McCarthy, ARI (ADP – 223.9)

52 – TJ Friedl, CIN (ADP – 251.7)

53 – Jorge Soler, LAA (ADP – 225.9)

54 – George Springer, TOR (ADP – 231.7)

55 – Garrett Mitchell, MLW (ADP – 258.0)

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