Supercomputer Predicts 2026–27 Champions League Winner After League Phase Draw
The stage is set for the 2026–27 Champions League league phase after August’s draw revealed the full slate of fixtures for the 36 teams competing in Europe’s premier club competition.
Ever since UEFA expanded the tournament format two years ago, the league phase now contains a flurry of mouthwatering clashes among the biggest clubs in Europe, leaving stale group stage matchups firmly in the past.
Even with the added caveat that no exact fixture can repeat three seasons in a row, the draw still delivered knockout-worthy games throughout the continent. Defending cup holders Paris Saint-Germain are set to lock horns with Barcelona and Manchester City, while runners-up Arsenal got Real Madrid and Bayern Munich.
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Manchester United will face off with Bayern Munich and Atlético Madrid in their return to the Champions League, while the 15-time champions Real Madrid play host to Inter Milan, who also must clash with Liverpool.
What will the league phase table look like come the end of January? And which team has the best chance of lifting the Champions League title four months later? Here’s how the Opta supercomputer projects the competition to unfold.
Supercomputer Predicts Final 2026–27 League Phase Table
Top Eight
Predicted Position | Club | Expected Points |
|---|---|---|
1. | Bayern Munich | 16.56 |
2. | Arsenal | 16.33 |
3. | Manchester City | 15.15 |
4. | Liverpool | 14.37 |
5. | Barcelona | 14.36 |
6. | Real Madrid | 14.12 |
7. | Paris Saint-Germain | 13.81 |
8. | Inter Milan | 13.76 |
The teams that finish in the top eight of the league phase automatically advance to the round of 16, and it’s neither of last season’s finalists regarded as the most likely table toppers. Instead, semifinalists Bayern Munich are projected to amass a competition-high 16.56 points—far fewer than the 21 they actually achieved when ranking second last season.
Arsenal, who won all eight of their league phase games last season, are not far behind with an expected total of 16.33 points.
Two of the Premier League’s other participants, Manchester City and Liverpool, are tipped to come third and fourth respectively. Despite entering the tournament under new management and off the back of several unspectacular European campaigns, their league phase records hint at another strong finish for the pair.
Next up are the Clásico foes. Barcelona are expected to place fifth, perhaps in part due to some difficult fixtures, while Real Madrid are predicted to finish just below them in sixth—despite failing to make the top eight last season. It would be little surprise to see either of Spain’s giants march to first, however, given their immense quality and depth.
After back-to-back titles, it’s somewhat surprising to see PSG tipped for seventh place. An underwhelming start to the season might have contributed, as well as their 11th-placed finish in last term’s league phase. Inter Milan, the current Serie A champions, are the only Italian side slated to automatically reach the last 16.
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Knockout Phase Playoffs
Predicted Position | Club | Expected Points |
|---|---|---|
9. | Manchester United | 13.06 |
10. | Aston Villa | 12.30 |
11. | Stuttgart | 12.11 |
12. | Borussia Dortmund | 12.03 |
13. | Roma | 11.78 |
14. | Sporting CP | 11.54 |
15. | Porto | 11.41 |
16. | Como | 11.30 |
17. | PSV Eindhoven | 10.85 |
18. | Bodø/Glimt | 10.77 |
19. | RB Leipzig | 10.64 |
20. | Club Brugge | 10.53 |
21. | Fenerbahçe | 10.28 |
22. | Atlético Madrid | 10.24 |
23. | Napoli | 10.21 |
24. | Lens | 9.94 |
Those that finish from ninth to 24th must compete in the knockout phase playoffs to punch their tickets to the last 16. Some elite sides will undoubtedly feature, with Manchester United tipped as the best of the bunch.
The returning Red Devils could comfortably finish in the top eight given their quality, but with this being their first-ever league phase, caution must be issued. Just behind them in 10th is another English returnee in Aston Villa, who arrive as Europa League champions.
Two Bundesliga sides follow, with Borussia Dortmund and Stuttgart projected to come 11th and 12th respectively. The former tend to punch above their weight, as Roma will hope to do during their first Champions League campaign since the 2018–19.
Portuguese sides Sporting CP and Porto have masses of European experience, and the former even reached last year’s quarterfinals with the help of a surprise seventh-place league phase finish. Neither are expected to finish in the top eight this season.
Como are the only one of the competition’s four debutants expected to reach the knockout phase, as are fellow Italians Napoli despite an early exit last year.
Somewhat surprisingly, Atlético Madrid are only handed 22nd in the predicted standings, behind the likes of PSV Eindhoven, Bodø/Glimt, RB Leipzig, Club Brugge and Fenerbahçe. The Spaniards do have the misfortune of a difficult fixture list, which contains games with Bayern, Liverpool and Man Utd.
Despite missing out on the competition last season, Lens are expected to feature in the knockouts after a 24th-placed finish.
Bottom 12
Position | Club | Predicted Points |
|---|---|---|
25. | Villarreal | 9.61 |
26. | Lille | 9.52 |
27. | Real Betis | 9.34 |
28. | Galatasaray | 9.26 |
29. | Slavia Prague | 8.91 |
30. | AEK Athens | 8.85 |
31. | Viking | 8.81 |
32. | LASK | 8.23 |
33. | Feyenoord | 7.38 |
34. | Shakhtar Donetsk | 7.04 |
35. | Slovan Bratislava | 6.34 |
36. | Sabah | 5.98 |
The teams that finish from 25th to 36th are automatically eliminated, and it’s little surprise to see Azerbaijani debutants Sabah tipped to come last. To make their first Champions League campaign even harder, they have been drawn against Arsenal, Barça, Man Utd, Dortmund, Napoli and Villarreal from the top three pots. Talk about bad luck!
Yaya Touré’s Slovan Bratislava might not fare much better than Sabah and are most likely to come 35th in the table. European regulars Shakhtar Donetsk and Feyenoord are only projected to earn a point more than the Slovakian side.
Viking and LASK are also undergoing their first Champions League season, and they will be hoping for a miracle. Tough games lie in store for the Norwegian and Austrian outfits, who would be utterly delighted to sneak into the top 24.
Slavia Prague are familiar with early Champions League exits and another appears likely this season. AEK Athens, who are appearing for the first time since 2018–19, are unlikely to pull up any trees, either.
The quartet above them carry genuine hopes of a knockout berth, though. Galatasaray, who made the last 16 in 2025–26, could make the cut again despite their billing as the 28th best side, and Real Betis just above them will hope to make an impression in their first Champions League campaign since 2005–06.
Their compatriots Villarreal endured a disastrous league phase campaign last time out, placing 35th come its conclusion, but they should improve this season. Lille are another team with eyes on a possible place in the knockouts.
Supercomputer Predicts 2026–27 Champions League Winner
Club | Chance of Winning |
|---|---|
Bayern Munich | 20.64% |
Arsenal | 20.34% |
Manchester City | 12.78% |
Barcelona | 6.78% |
Paris Saint-Germain | 6.71% |
Liverpool | 5.80% |
Real Madrid | 4.33% |
Manchester United | 3.85% |
Inter Milan | 3.40% |
Aston Villa | 2.07% |
Bayern and Arsenal are the only clubs given a 20%+ chance of winning the Champions League trophy this season. The latter are desperate for a first-ever title in the competition, especially after an agonizing penalty shootout defeat in last season’s final.
Man City have been handed a 12.78% chance of a second title in Enzo Maresca’s debut season, with their sizable summer rebuild offering hope of an excellent campaign across all competitions.
A third successive title for PSG is a distinct possibility, although they are considered less likely to clinch the crown than Barcelona. The Catalan behemoths haven’t won the competition since 2014–15, but certainly have the talent to go all the way after last season’s disappointing quarterfinal exit.
It would be quite the achievement if Andoni Iraola could win Liverpool their seventh Champions League title in his debut season. Their 5.8% chance of landing the trophy is greater than record champions Real Madrid, who are given a 4.33% chance under the returning José Mourinho.
Man Utd and Inter are not far behind Los Blancos, while Aston Villa rank as the 10th likeliest winners.
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