College Basketball Best Bets: The Sooner You Bet Oklahoma, the Better

It's a loaded Tuesday slate in college hoops, and we have four best bets for you for this slate. Even though the Pac-12 is 17-0 straight up and 14-3 against the spread this season against non-Pac-12 foes in non-conference play (yes, Arizona State vs. Colorado in China counted as a non-conference game), we'll be brave and fade two teams from the conference tonight. We're using the current odds at William Hill (as of 12:30 p.m. EST) for these bets. 

Oklahoma vs. Oregon State (in Portland)

Three Man Weave's Pick: Oklahoma -2

Remember folks, the gambling gods punish naivety above all. Don’t be foolish and chalk this wager up as a simple #FadeThePac12 initiative because that era ended with the 2018-19 campaign. After a futile three-year run, the Pac-12 is now on a furious revenge tour, kicking ass and taking names of every team that, along with us, laughed in its face for three straight seasons.

At the forefront of the league renaissance is Oregon State, fresh off an impressive 80-74 victory over perennial Big 12 contender Iowa State, as well as a sneaky good win over a talented Cal State Northridge squad. The Beavers’ “Big 3”—Tres Tinkle, Kylor Kelley and Ethan Thompson—has been as advertised through two games, shouldering the same heavy burden it grew accustomed to last season, while the forgotten fourth banana Zach Reichle has knocked down some timely shots as well.

In the big picture, Oregon State is far from fraudulent, but Lon Kruger and the Sooners are set up to serve the Beavers an early reality check tonight in Portland. Yes, notice I said Portland, as tonight’s contest will take place at the Moda Center, not in Corvallis, where the Beavers typically hold a strong home-court advantage. There is still some home edge for Oregon State here, but the standard home-court value will be deflated, especially with the Beavers’ arch nemesis slated to play Memphis in the matinee. Also, the Sooners have some familiarity with this travel itinerary. Just two years ago, Oklahoma was invited to attend Phil Knight’s 80th birthday bash (PK80) at the Moda Center, where the Sooners dismantled Portland and Oregon in a similar “semi-away” road environment. Lon Kruger and Oklahoma’s two veteran leaders, Brady Manek and Kristian Doolittle, were both a part of that road trip, so this Portlandia adventure should feel like déjà vu.

From a matchup perspective, Oklahoma’s defense is a different beast than what the Beavers have seen so far this year. The Sooners feature a pair of defensive ballhawks in Jamal Bieniemy and De’Vion Harmon, to go along with an athletic crop of wings in Alondes Williams, Victor Iwuakor and Jalen Hill. Oregon State is devoid of a true point guard, as Thompson and Tinkle often handle the bulk of the ball handling and initiation duties on offense. This can be taxing on Thompson and Tinkle with the scoring and playmaking responsibilities already on their plate, so look for Bieniemy and Harmon to heat up the ball at the point of attack and put pressure on the less seasoned Beaver backcourt. It remains to be seen who Kruger will assign the Tinkle cover, but Iwuakor’s length and athleticism qualify him for the job, while Hill could also see some time on Tinkle. Hill, a four-star freshman, started in place of Doolittle in the Sooners’ opener, but missed last game with a concussion. Kruger is hopeful Hill can suit up tonight, but even if he can’t go, Doolittle is another viable option to keep Tinkle in check.

Another matchup advantage in the Sooners’ favor is Manek versus Kelley. Manek is a hyper-skilled forward who can handle and stroke it from distance, who Kruger is now playing at the 5 this season. To negate Kelley’s defensive impact, arguably the most feared rim protector in all of college basketball, it requires a versatile 5 capable of luring Kelley away from the rim. Manek is the perfect kryptonite for the Beavers’ 7-foot shot-blocking savant and should be equally as effective as a forward triggerman if Oregon State opts to counter with zone. Former Wichita State transfer Austin Reaves could be a lethal zone buster who’s due to catch fire after converting just 2 of his 12 long-range attempts to start the year.

Ultimately, I trust Kruger to devise a defensive blueprint that will prevent Tinkle from going off, which should put the onus on the Beavers’ other unproven cast of characters to score. Look for this line to rise if an official update on Hill is released before tip-off, but there’s still ample value with Boomer Sooner if the number stays at or below 3 points.

Missouri at No. 21 Xavier

3MW's Pick: Under 136

In a last-second whimsical decision, the Weave is throwing a bonus total pick into the hopper! Since 66% of our three-man organization is Mizzou alumni, the Tigers are a team we know all too well. Cuonzo Martin and the boys obliterated their first two challengers, Incarnate Word and Northern Kentucky, cruising to two easy covers at home.

Mizzou now travels to Cincinnati to take on the X-Men, who have also cruised to two easy victories to start the season (Jacksonville by 19 and Siena by 18) and look the part of a bonafide Big East title contender. For Mizzou to have success against a loaded Xavier squad, it’ll need to reuse the same formula that dominated Northern Kentucky wire-to-wire Friday night in Columbia. The Tigers refused to let the visiting Norse dictate the tempo, slowing the pace down to a screeching halt to impose their size superiority in a half-court affair. This deliberate intent to play at a snail’s pace was also evident in some of Mizzou’s big road games last season. The Tigers’ two lowest possession games last year came against Mississippi State and Kentucky, two talented teams with a surplus of offensive firepower. Xavier’s prolific scoring attack is no exception, so look for Mizzou to employ a similar approach tonight to ensure the margin stays close.

Now in Martin’s third season at the helm in Columbia, he’s constructed a roster tailor-made for his tough and physical brand of basketball, one that should pose problems for Xavier’s offense. As the self-proclaimed “Big Guard U,” Mizzou’s backcourt features size and length at all three perimeter positions with Dru Smith, Mark Smith, Javon Pickett and Torrence Watson all standing taller than 6’3”. Yet, this narrative still stands when regurgitated from the Xavier side of the coin, as the Musketeer guards are equals in size to the Tigers' backcourt. This sets up for a bruising back-and-forth battle on the perimeter, one in which both sides should struggle to generate scoring chances from the outside. Up front, Jeremiah Tillmon and Tyrique Jones will embark on their own boxing match in the paint, two physically imposing bigs who welcome contact with open arms.

All signs indicate this bout will be a true heavyweight showdown, one in which neither side will surrender anything easy to the other. Points will be few and far between tonight when the immovable object meets another immovable object.

Long Beach State at Stanford

Meyer's Picks: Under 142 Points, Long Beach State +13.5

Unders have been all the rage so far in college basketball, so let’s dip our toe into the water, shall we?

Stanford is 2-0 this season, coming up with home wins and covers against Montana and Cal State Fullerton. Long Beach State is its next challenger, and the Beach are already battle tested, losing by four points at UCLA and beating San Diego by 12. It’s impressive that they’ve been this competitive early considering that five of their top seven scorers from last season were seniors.

What’s really helped out Long Beach State has been forcing turnovers, as San Diego turned it over 29 times, which the Beach turned into 30 points.

Long Beach State coach Dan Monson said this after the game: “Scoring 30 points off our defense is how we’ll have to win for now, because our offense is a work in progress.”

He’s right about the offense. Granted, it’s a two-game sample size, but the Beach have struggled on offense with turnovers (239th in TO%), two-point shooting (205th), free throws (241st), offensive rebounding (212th) and assist rate (324th). In particularly, starting point guard Michael Carter has been a walking turnover, as his turnover rate is a whopping 26.7%. They are shooting 42.9% from three (35th), but they rank 271st in three-point attempt rate. Stanford allowed the lowest three-point attempt rate in the country last season, so don’t expect many Beach shots from beyond the arc here, either.

The Cardinal have also been strong at producing turnovers, as they are 77th in defensive turnover rate and 22nd in steal rate. The guard tandem of freshmen Tyrell Terry and junior Daejon Davis have combined for 14 steals in two games. If there is a weakness with the Stanford defense, though, it's inside, as the Cardinal lost the length of KZ Okpala and Josh Sharma. 

Stanford has ranked 65th, 71st and 66th in defensive efficiency in three seasons under Jerod Haase. It’s been the offense, however, that has been this team’s bugaboo, as it has finished 161st, 120th and 187th in offensive adjusted efficiency over that span.

Particularly the past two seasons, the Cardinal have really struggled with turnovers (304th and 310th in turnover rate) and generating any form of offense against zone defense. Last season, Stanford finished in the 68th percentile of all CBB teams in terms of points per possession against man defense, but a brutal 9th percentile against zone. In the 2017-18 season, it was 54th percentile against man and 33rd percentile against zone.

Under Monson, Long Beach State will throw a good amount of its 2-3 zone at you, as the Beach have played zone on 35% of possessions. Only 27 teams have used zone on a higher percentage of possessions so far this season than the Beach. And the Cardinal haven’t faced a single possession of zone defense in their first two games, Montana and Fullerton went all man. This is a Stanford team that ranks 325th in experience on kenpom.com, and its two point guards are a true freshman (Terry) and a junior (Davis) that has massively struggled with turnovers his entire collegiate career.

I expect a lot of turnovers and poor shooting in this one, which should make it a lower-scoring game. I'm also grabbing the points here with the Beach. I just think 13.5 is a lot if Stanford is going to have trouble scoring against a zone defense like it has in recent seasons, especially since this 2-3 will be the first zone it will go up against this season. 

Season Record: 2-3