2024 NFL Draft Odds: Quarterbacks Projected to Go First, Second and Third
Only three times in NFL history has a draft begun with three straight quarterbacks: 1971 (Jim Plunkett, Archie Manning, Dan Pastorini), 1999 (Tim Couch, Donovan McNadd, Akili Smith) and 2021 (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance). If the current betting odds are any indication, the 2024 draft is trending in that direction with the three top quarterback prospects projected to come off the board with the first three picks, though the order is still up for debate.
The Chicago Bears are on the clock with the first overall selection, which they acquired from the Carolina Panthers in a blockbuster trade last March. Even with 2021 first-round pick Justin Fields on the roster, the Bears are widely expected to reset their timeline with the addition of a rookie signal-caller.
The Washington Commanders are next up with the No. 2 pick and a clear need at quarterback after trotting out 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell for all 17 games last season. The Commanders are under new ownership and hired a new coach last month — a quarterback is the logical next step in the ongoing rebuild in the nation’s capital.
The New England Patriots are picking third, their earliest selection since they drafted Drew Bledsoe first overall in 1993. Like Washington, the Patriots also have a new coach in charge and similar to Chicago, they have a 2021 first-round quarterback on the roster in Mac Jones. Even still, New England is likely looking to improve at the most important position in team sports or perhaps even trade down with another quarterback-needy team.
Ahead of the NFL Combine this week in Indianapolis, let’s take a look at the current betting odds for the draft.
Odds for the No. 1 Pick
Caleb Williams -1600
Drake Maye +1100
Jayden Daniels +2500
Marvin Harrison Jr. +2500
USC quarterback Caleb Williams is a prohibitive favorite to hear his name called first April 25 in Detroit. Williams won the Heisman Trophy in 2022 after he transferred from Oklahoma and threw for 4,537 yards and 42 touchdowns in his first season with the Trojans. He followed up that record-breaking campaign with 3,633 yards and 30 touchdowns last season as USC limped to a disappointing 8–5 record. Williams’s status as QB1 in the 2024 class has not wavered, though.
He was the odds-on favorite to go first in the draft as soon as last April’s draft concluded and those odds have only shortened since then. At the moment, Williams’ closest competition at the top of the draft is North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, followed by LSU quarterback and reigning Heisman winner Jayden Daniels and Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., both of whom are seen as long shots to be selected first.
Maye’s counting stats were on par with Williams in 2022, when he threw for 4,321 yards and 38 touchdowns with the Tar Heels. He also struggled to replicate that success this past season, finishing with 3,608 yards and 24 touchdowns. Maye’s size (6’4”, 230 pounds) is a feather in his cap compared with Williams (6’1”, 215). They also differ in their play style as Williams is considered more of a playmaker and Maye more of a prototypical quarterback who performs better in structure.
SI’s Luke Easterling has Williams going to the Bears in his latest mock draft and referenced his “Mahomes-esque flashes.”
Odds for the No. 2 Pick
Drake Maye -140
Jayden Daniels +150
Caleb Williams +1200
Marvin Harrison Jr. +1500
While Williams at No. 1 seems to be the consensus, there’s more of an open debate at No. 2 between Maye and Daniels, even though the former is the betting favorite.
Easterling projects Daniels will land with the Commanders, and recently wrote “Daniels’s big-play ability as both a thrower and a runner made him last year’s Heisman Trophy winner and could have him leapfrogging Drake Maye into the No. 2 spot.”
Not only did Daniels throw for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns while completing better than 72% of his passes in his final year with the Tigers, he added 1,134 rushing yards and 10 scores on the ground. Daniels may also be dinged for his slight frame (6’4”, 210) and for all the highlights of him running for touchdowns untouched, he still took his fair share of big hits.
Age is not nearly as much a concern with Daniels as it is with some other potential Round 1 quarterbacks, like Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr., but it’s worth noting he did not truly break out until his fifth collegiate season while both Maye and Williams did so as true sophomores.
If Maye does end up in Washington, he would be reunited with Howell, who he played with and eventually replaced under center at UNC.
Odds for the No. 3 Pick
Jayden Daniels +160
Drake Maye +190
Marvin Harrison Jr. +270
J.J. McCarthy +850
Daniels is currently the betting favorite to go third to New England, though Maye isn’t far behind him. The Patriots are in a position where they can stand pat and select whichever quarterback falls to them at No. 3, go best player available and draft Harrison or trade down. New England has notoriously struggled when it comes to selecting wide receivers but in Harrison they could land who Easterling called “the best player in the entire draft.”
This is also where Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy begins to enter the conversation, though he’s generally viewed as the QB4 in this class; Easterling mocked him to the Denver Broncos at No. 12. In all likelihood, the Patriots will end up with Daniels or Maye, whomever Washington didn’t want, though Easterling projects it will be Maye who winds up in New England.
To further drive home the case that this will be the fourth draft ever with quarterbacks selected 1-2-3, Harrison is the odds-on favorite to be drafted by the Arizona Cardinals, who have the fourth overall pick.
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