2025 U.S. Open Cut Line: Predicting Who Makes the Weekend at Oakmont Country Club

Our expert likes one former Oakmont champion to play the weekend but has his doubts about the world No. 2.

Rory McIlroy may be a great bet to miss the cut at the U.S. Open. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club tees off Thursday, and all signs point to this tournament being chaotic. Media members and golfers alike are hyping this course up to be one of the most difficult we’ve seen in years.

No one summed it up better than Byeong Hun An, who will be making his ninth career U.S. Open start.

Oakmont is hard.

— Byeong Hun An (@ByeongHunAn) June 9, 2025

If it plays as hard as people are expecting, we could see some big names miss the cut. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the history of cut lines at the U.S. Open, and then I’ll break down my favorite bet to both make and miss the cut this week.

U.S. Open cut line history

Year	Course	Cut Line
2024	Pinehurst	+5
2023	Los Angeles Country Club	+2
2022	The Country Club	+3
2021	Torrey Pines	+4
2020	Winged Foot	+6
2019	Pebble Beach	+2
2018	Shinnecock	+8
2017	Erin Hills	+1
2016	Oakmont	+6
2015	Chambers Bay	+5

The last time the U.S. Open was hosted at Oakmont, the cut line was 6 over.

U.S. Open cut line prediction

We can confidently say the cut line this week will be at over par, but exactly what number will it be? Oakmont has reportedly grown out the rough even more this year than what we saw in 2016 when the cut at Oakmont was at 6 over, so I don't think it'd be unreasonable to see a cut line even higher than that.

With that being said, heavy rain the week before has caused the grounds to be a bit softer than expected, so I don’t think the cut line will be quite as different as 2016 as some people believe it will be. I’ll set it at one stroke higher at 7 over.

Cut line prediction: +7

2025 U.S. Open best bet to make the cut

The last time the U.S. Open was hosted at Oakmont, it was Dustin Johnson who won with a final score of 4 under, beating the rest of the field by three strokes. It goes without saying that he’s not the same golfer he was in 2016, but he’s now set at plus-money to make the cut. To be fair, he has missed the cut in three of his last four major starts, but he has shown breaths of life lately, including a T10 finish at last week’s LIV Virginia.

I’m certainly not going all in on DJ this week, but I’ll take a chance on him at +110 odds to play the weekend.

Pick: Dustin Johnson +110 via DraftKings

2025 U.S. Open best bet to miss the cut

Rory McIlroy has admitted that he hasn’t been as motivated since completing his career goal of winning the Masters, and he’s also talked about his struggles in finding a driver that works for him. The result of that was a 9 over score in the second round of the RBC Canadian Open, sending him home early. I don’t think he’s going to be able to bounce back from one of his worst career performances to a strong performance at a major championship at one of the most difficult courses he’ll ever play. It’s time to fade McIlroy until his golf game shows some life.

Pick: Rory McIlroy +275 via DraftKings

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