2025 WNBA MVP Odds: Napheesa Collier Favored Over Caitlin Clark in Two-Player Race

Breaking down the latest odds to win the WNBA MVP award in the 2025 season.

Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier is the favorite to win the league's MVP award this season. / Chris Jones-Imagn Images

The 2025 WNBA season still has a ways to go before the halfway point in the campaign, yet it appears that the MVP race is down to just two players.

Only Minnesota Lynx forward Naphees Collier and Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark have shorter than +5000 odds to win the MVP award, a sign that one of the two players will end up winning the award – barring a major injury.

It’s worth noting that Clark has already missed time with a quad injury and that Collier is nursing a back injury at the moment, so there may end up being a shake-up in the odds if one of these players ends up missing even more time. 

However, ahead of Tuesday night’s action, Collier is the clear favorite in the market as she and the Lynx have the best record in the WNBA at 12-1. Can the former UConn star finally break through to win the first MVP of her career?

Let’s take a look at the odds and the case for each of these stars this season. 

WNBA MVP Odds for 2025 Season

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Napheesa Collier: -320
• Caitlin Clark: +260
• Breanna Stewart: +5000
• A’ja Wilson: +7500
• Sabrina Ionescu: +9500
• Alyssa Thomas: +10000
• Allisha Gray: +10000

Note: No other player has shorter than 100/1 odds to win MVP in the 2025 season.

Napheesa Collier Heavily Favored to Win First MVP Award

Based on these odds from FanDuel, Collier has an implied probability of 76.19 percent to win the league’s MVP award in the 2025 season.

The team’s impressive record certainly buoys the Lynx star’s case, and for the second straight season, the Lynx have qualified for the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Final. However, Collier’s play on the floor is the driving force behind her MVP case.

So far this season, the former UConn star is averaging 24.2 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.5 blocks per game while shooting 52.4 percent from the field (a career-high) and 42.1 percent from 3 (also a career-high).

Collier won the league’s Defensive Player of the Year award last season, and she has finished in the top four in MVP voting in back-to-back campaigns. It only seems like a matter of time before Collier finally wins an MVP, and her on/off numbers this season show just how valuable she is to Minnesota.

This season, the Lynx are +17.5 points per 100 possessions with Collier on the floor, which is actually more than double what the Fever are with Clark on the court (+8.2 points per 100 possessions).

If Collier stays healthy and the Lynx remain in the top spot in the W, it’s hard to see her not winning the MVP in 2025. 

Can Caitlin Clark Make a Push in MVP Market? 

There is a world where Clark is able to make a push for the league’s MVP award, but she needs to get the Fever on a win streak first.

Indiana is just 6-7 in the 2025 season – although it did struggle while Clark was out – and it sits well behind Collier and the Lynx in the standings.

Through eight games, Clark is averaging 19.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 8.9 assists per game while shooting 40.6 percent from the field and 31.9 percent from 3. The star guard’s efficiency as a shooter is actually down from her rookie season.

Now, Clark could turn that around – we saw her have a big second half in the 2024 season – but right now her numbers don’t stack up compared to Collier’s. Even though the Fever star is averaging a ton of assists, she’s also turning the ball over 5.6 times per game.

Last season, Clark snuck into the MVP race with a late-season surge (she finished fourth in the voting), so it’s impossible to count her out in this market. 

However, at +260 odds, she has an implied probability of just 27.78 percent to win the MVP at this point in the 2025 season.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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