3 Best Long Shot Bets to Win NFL MVP in 2025 (Michael Penix Jr. Will Thrive in First Full Season)

The wait is finally over, my friends, football is back! Before the NFL season kicks off in a couple of days, it's time to place from futures for the upcoming campaign.

One of the best betting markets each year is which player will be named NFL MVP. Of course, there are the obvious names like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and even Jayden Daniels, but you don't need me to tell you there's a great shot the MVP is one of those names. So, in this article, let's take a look further down the odds list.

I'm going to rank three players at 60-1 odds or longer who I think are great value plays to be named the league's most valuable player in 2025.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

NFL MVP Longshot Picks

Saquon Barkley +6000

They say that the NFL MVP award has turned into a "best quarterback" award, but Saquon Barkley has a chance to buck that trend. The Eagles' running back finished third in MVP voting last season, rushing for over 2,000 yards. He'll somehow have to improve on that number and likely find the end zone more than 15 times, but if he can, he'll be back in the MVP conversation this season.

Barkley is once again going to be playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. As long as he stays healthy, the sky is the limit for the defending Offensive Player of the Year.

Michael Penix Jr. +6000

A great longshot candidate to win NFL MVP is a player who has yet to fully show who he is as a professional football player. Jayden Daniels fell under that category last season, posting a historic rookie season as a quarterback, which ended with him finishing seventh in MVP voting.

This year's version of Daniels, albeit not a rookie, could be Michael Penix Jr. of the Atlanta Falcons. He only started three games last season, but he has a powerful arm and plenty of poise in the pocket in those starts. He also has a great offensive unit around him. The Falcons have a top-five offensive line in the league, a solid receiving core that includes Drake London and Darnell Mooney, and an elite running back in Bijan Robinson to demand some attention from their opposing defenses.

Sam Darnold +10000

Sam Darnold was one of the best stories of the season last night, coming from nowhere to be one of the quarterback campaigns of 2024, which resulted in him finishing 10th in NFL MVP voting. He's on a new team this year, the Seattle Seahawks, but he still has a couple of weapons to target, including Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He'll need a lot of things to go his way to get back in the MVP conversation, but if he can take a step forward from last year's production, a 100-1 bet may have great value by the second half of the season.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!