Aces vs. Fever Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bets for Thursday, July 3

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Las Vegas Aces-Indiana Fever matchup on July 3.

The Indiana Fever are underdogs on Thursday night. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The Las Vegas Aces are just .500 in the 2025 season heading into Thursday’s matchup with the Commissioner’s Cup champions, the Indiana Fever.

The Fever knocked off the Minnesota Lynx – without Caitlin Clark – on Tuesday night to earn their first Commissioner’s Cup title in franchise history. 

Now, the Fever are looking to get back over .500 (both teams are 8-8) when they host the Aces and reigning league MVP A’ja Wilson.

The Aces have not meshed well with the addition of Jewell Loyd, but they did bolster their frontcourt this week by trading for NaLyssa Smith in a deal with the Dallas Wings.

For Indiana, Clark has been ruled out once again due to a groin injury. The star guard has missed the last three games for the Fever.

Here's a breakdown of the odds, players to bet on in the prop market, and my prediction for Thursday’s contest. 

Aces vs. Fever Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Aces -3.5 (-110)
• Fever +3.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Aces: -125
• Fever: +105

Total

• 163.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Aces vs. Fever How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, July 3
• Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
• How to Watch (TV): Prime Video 
• Aces record: 8-8
• Fever record: 8-8

Aces vs. Fever Injury Reports

Aces Injury Report

• Megan Gustafson – doubtful
• Cheyenne Parker-Tyus – out

Fever Injury Report

• Caitlin Clark – out
• Damiris Dantas – out

Aces vs. Fever Best WNBA Prop Bets

Fever Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Kelsey Mitchell OVER 18.5 Points (-115)

With Clark ruled out again, Mitchell is a terrific bet to clear her points prop on Thursday.

The All-Star guard is averaging 18.9 points per game this season, and she’s scored 20 or more points in each of her last four regular-season games. While she didn’t clear this line against Minnesota on Tuesday, she’s still been red hot shooting the ball as of late, hitting 51.8 percent of her field goal attempts and 42.0 percent of her 3s over her last seven regular-season games.

Mitchell should have a huge usage rate against an Aces team that ranks just ninth in the WNBA in defensive rating this season. 

Aces vs. Fever Prediction and Pick

The Aces have been a tough team to bet on in the 2025 season, going 6-10 against the spread and just 3-4 straight up on the road entering this matchup.

Clark's injury ended up shifting the odds for this game – it shifted the odds for Tuesday’s matchup with Minnesota by 5.5 points and this matchup by tw points – but I do think there is some value in backing the Fever as underdogs.

Indiana is 4-4 without Clark this season, including Tuesday’s Commissioner’s Cup win, and it is 9-8 against the spread overall in the 2025 season.

Las Vegas has really struggled defensively in 2025, ranking ninth in defensive rating and eighth in opponent points per game, while the Fever have the No. 4 offense in the W this season.

Pick: Fever +3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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