Aces vs. Lynx Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for WNBA Commissioner's Cup

Can the Lynx clinch their spot in the WNBA Commissioner's Cup Final?

Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier is a great prop target on Tuesday. / John Froschauer-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Lynx are all but guaranteed to be in the Commissioner’s Cup Final later on this season, but a win on Tuesday night against the Las Vegas Aces would officially secure a spot for Napheesa Collier and company.

The Lynx are heavily favored at home against the Aces, who will not have A’ja Wilson (concussion protocol) available for this matchup.

Wilson has missed the Aces’ last two games, and they are 1-1 without her and just 5-5 in the 2025 season. 

Meanwhile, the Lynx are 10-1 and have the second-best net rating in the WNBA so far in 2025. Collier is playing at an MVP level, and she’s a player that I’m looking to target in the prop market for this Commissioner’s Cup clash.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, the Collier prop, and my game prediction for this Western Conference battle. 

Aces vs. Lynx Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Aces +9 (-110)
• Lynx -9 (-110)

Moneyline

• Aces: +310
• Lynx: -395

Total

• 163.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Aces vs. Lynx How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, June 17
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Center
• How to Watch (TV): WNBA League Pass
• Aces record: 5-5
• Lynx record: 10-1

Aces vs. Lynx Injury Reports

Aces Injury Report

• A’ja Wilson – out
• Megan Gustafson – out
• Cheyenne Parker-Tyus – out

Lynx Injury Report

• Jessica Shepard – out

Aces vs. Lynx Best WNBA Prop Bets

Lynx Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Napheesa Collier OVER 23.5 Points (-110)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Napheesa Collier is a great prop target: 

MVP candidate Napheesa Collier has been on fire this season, averaging 26.1 points per game while shooting 53.3 percent from the field and 44.4 percent from beyond the arc for the Minnesota Lynx.

Collier has scored 24 or more points in seven of her 10 games this season, and she could be in line for another big game against the Las Vegas Aces. 

The Aces may not have A’ja Wilson (concussion protocol) in this matchup, and Las Vegas has struggled on defense even with the reigning MVP in action, ranking ninth in the WNBA in defensive rating and opponent points per game.

Collier has yet to face the Aces this season, but she’s scored 25 or more points in three straight games and is averaging career-highs in field goal attempts (18.0), 3-point attempts (3.6) and free-throw attempts (5.7) per game this season. 

I think she’s in a prime spot to clear this prop, which is set well below her season scoring average, on Tuesday night. 

Aces vs. Lynx Prediction and Pick

With Wilson ruled out for this matchup, but the Aces could be in trouble once again.

Overall, Las Vegas is just eighth in the W in net rating (-2.6) while the Lynx are second at +12.6. Minnesota has been elite on the offensive end of the floor, ranking second in points per game, offensive rating, and effective field goal percentage. 

With Jewell Loyd off to a slow start and the Aces ranking in the bottom half of the league in defense, I’m not sure they have the firepower to keep up with this Lynx team without the reigning league MVP.

Las Vegas has dropped three of its last four games, including losses to the 5-5 Golden State Valkyries and 4-8 Los Angeles Sparks.

While the Lynx have struggled to cover the spread at home this season, I trust them to win this game going away with the reigning league MVP out. 

Pick: Lynx -9 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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