AL MVP Odds: Aaron Judge is Already Overwhelming Favorite

Iain MacMillan | May 20, 2025

Aaron Judge is already a massive favorite to win AL MVP. / John Froschauer-Imagn Images

It's not uncommon for the MVP race to be narrowed down to a few names by this point of the season, but it's extremely rare for the MVP to already be virtually decided before the calendar turns to June.

Unless something unexpected happens, Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees is going to win his third career MVP and his second straight after winning the award both in 2022 and 2024.

Don't believe me? Let's take a look at the odds.

AL MVP Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Aaron Judge -3000
• Bobby Witt Jr. +1500
• Alex Bregman +6000
• Gunnar Henderson +9000
• Jose Ramirez +9000
• Cal Raleigh +9000
• Jorge Polanco +9000

Aaron Judge is set as the -3000 favorite to win AL MVP at FanDuel Sportsbook. If you translate those odds to implied probability, he has a 96.77% chance of winning the award, leaving just a 3.23% chance of it being anyone else on the odds board.

The Yankees' outfielder is leading the Majors in batting average (.401), hits (71), and WAR (3.7) while also ranking second in Runs Batted In (41) and third in home runs (15). When you consider all those numbers, it's easy to understand why Judge is such a big favorite. Of course, stranger things have happened, and if he happens to suffer an injury, you'll see his odds drop immediately and significantly.

The only other realistic option to win the award, barring an act of God, is Bobby Witt Jr., of the Kansas City Royals. He's tied for fifth in the Majors in WAR at 2.7, but he's also tied for second in stolen bases with 16.

Still, it's clear that this is Judge's award to lose months before we reach the All-Star Break.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.