AL Rookie of the Year Odds at 2025 All-Star Break (Can Cam Smith Hold His Place as Clear Odds Favorite?)

Sean Treppedi | Jul 14, 2025

Cam Smith is the +105 favorite for AL Rookie of the Year heading into the All-Star Break. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The American League Rookie of the Year race has begun to define itself as we pull up to the All-Star break on July 14 and there are several teams that are providing the candidates with the shortest odds.

Houston right fielder Cam Smith has exploded over the last month, hitting over .300 with an OBP pushing .400. He’s also been a top-notch defensive asset, too: Smith has already racked up 2.2 WAR and ranks second among all right fielders in both Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved. His steady climb — from a .125 average in March to .300 so far in July — is almost unheard of for a rookie, which is why he is the market favorite currently priced at +105.

Then there’s the pair of emerging Athletics. 

Jacob Wilson of the A’s earned a start in the All-Star Game, which makes him the second rookie shortstop to ever earn that honor. He’s slashing a league-best .332 and leading all AL rookies across the board in hits, OBP, slugging, OPS and RBIs.

But if you’re feeling bullish on Wilson’s +125 odds to get shorter, there are signs of possible regression to consider in the second half; this guy rarely walks, he swings at everything and ironically has one of the league’s worst exit velocity profiles at 85.4 mph. As pitchers adjust and the summer wanes into the dog days, Wilson may struggle to keep pace if the quality of contact doesn’t improve.

If you’re seeking reasonable upside, Nick Kurtz is who I’m looking at in the race. He hit .264 with seven home runs and 17 RBIs in June, earning AL Rookie of the Month honors and showcasing an elite clutch gene with five go-ahead homers, too. Kurtz is tied for the lead in total home runs among rookies and boasted a .926 OPS in June, proving his bat really plays at this level.

Beyond those three, the rivaling Red Sox and Yankees have some interesting options floating in the market: Sox catcher Carlos Narvaez has emerged as an unsuspecting nightly presence behind the plate; he has rare poise and while his game-calling and framing are top-tier, it’s not the kind of flashy production that typically wins over the Rookie of the Year voters. No. 1 prospect Roman Anthony is heating up too, hitting over .300 to start July, but he’s still chasing consistency. 

If you’re looking for a dark horse, Tampa’s Jake Mangum and pitchers like Shane Smith (White Sox) or Will Warren (Yankees) could enter the fringes of the conversation, but this is quickly becoming Cam Smith’s award to lose. 

Someone who I found to be an interesting addition to the oddsboard is Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler at +12000. He only just made his MLB debut the day before this article was written on July 9. In that start against Seattle, he earned a 9-6 win by striking out seven hitters in 5 ⅓ innings — but more impressively, throwing all seven of the team’s fastest pitches this season. His fastball velocity averaged out at 97.9.

Here’s a full-scope picture at where things stand with a few more days of play before the break.

2025 American League Rookie of the Year Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Cam Smith: +105
• Jacob Wilson: +125
• Nick Kurtz: +550
• Roman Anthony: +1700
• Jason Dominguez: +1700
• Carlos Narvaez: +2400
• Will Warren: +8500
• Jack Leiter: +8500
• Jake Magnum: +8500
• Shane Smith: +8500
• Noah Cameron: +8500
• Jac Caglianone: +10000
• Marcelo Mayer: +10000
• Tomoyuki Sugano: +12000
• Cam Schlittler: +12000
• Colson Montgomery: +1300
• Chase Meidroth: +13000
• Chandler Simpson: +14000
• Jace Jung: +20000
• Coby Mayo: 20000
• Edgar Quero: +20000
• Brandon Young: +20000

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