Alabama vs. Florida State Best College Football Prop Bets for Week 1 (Bet on Ty Simpson)

Sean Treppedi | Aug 29, 2025

Ty Simpson makes his first start as Alabama’s QB1, stepping into DeBoer’s system with a talented receiver group but plenty to prove under real pressure. / Will McLelland-Imagn Images

Alabama heads to Tallahassee as a two-touchdown favorite against Florida State in one of Week 1’s most anticipated games. 

Kalen DeBoer hands the keys of his offense to Ty Simpson, who was officially named the Crimson Tide’s starter in mid-August, setting the stage for his first real test as QB1. 

Across the field, Florida State enters a new era with Gus Malzahn calling plays and Boston College transfer Tommy Castellanos taking the first snap at quarterback. The Seminoles have rebuilt their skill positions through the portal, adding playmakers like Duce Robinson and Squirrel White, while Alabama’s offense is reshaping around a deep receiver room and a committee backfield after losing Jam Miller to a preseason injury. 

Both teams bring different kinds of uncertainty into the opener, which is exactly what makes this matchup so compelling. In that context, the player props don’t just provide side intrigue — they offer the clearest window into how these new pieces might function under the spotlight.

Best Prop Bets for Alabama vs. Florida State

• Ty Simpson Over 1.5 Passing TDs 
• Germie Bernard Over 3.5 Receptions 
• Tommy Castellanos Under 246.5 Passing Yards 

Ty Simpson Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-158 at FanDuel)

Simpson may enter Week 1 with limited prior game snaps but a deep, experienced receiver room built to insulate a first-start QB gives him optimism in the prop markets. Germie Bernard, who led Alabama with 50 catches for 794 yards in 2024, returned to school and projects as a high-volume outlet, while Ryan Williams arrives after an 865-yard, 8-TD freshman year. With Jam Miller sidelined for the opener, Alabama’s staff has openly discussed a committee backfield until late September; that absence historically nudges DeBoer/Grubb attacks toward higher pass rates. The matchup context matters too with the market tabbing Bama at -13.5, so multi-TD scoring is likely in store.

Germie Bernard Over 3.5 Receptions (-106 at FanDuel)

Bernard’s return announcement in January came with the key detail that he led the Tide in receptions last season, and Alabama’s official bio lists 50 for 794 as the baseline he’s building on. Bernard’s 2024 usage also included designed touches (four rushes, one TD), which props up reception expectancy because those same packaging tendencies often translate into quick game/jet-look targets. With Jam Miller ruled out and a committee behind him, Alabama’s early-season identity likely skews toward short/intermediate sequencing, where Bernard’s catch-rate profile is most bankable.

Tommy Castellanos Under 246.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Castellanos’ 2024 sample at Boston College was 170.8 passing yards per game across eight starts (1,366 yards), which signals efficiency volatility when forced beyond structure. Then there’s FSU’s portal remake, which added backs Roydell Williams and Gavin Sawchuk and installed Luke Petitbon and other veterans up front — moves consistent with leaning on the ground game while the passing timing matures.

And like my point above, books rating Alabama double-digit road favorites means that even if FSU trails, it won’t necessarily equate to yardage when this offense’s core identity is run-centric and protection is newly assembled.

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