Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek Prediction, Odds for French Open Semifinals

Is Iga Świątek undervalued in the French Open semifinals?

Iga Swiatek is an underdog in the French Open semifinals. / Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

One of the more anticipated French Open matchups of 2025 will take place on Thursday morning, as world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will take on No. 5 Iga Świątek – a former world No. 1 – with a trip to the Final on the line.

Świątek has won the last three titles at the French Open, and she also won in 2020. The No. 5 player in the world is still set as an underdog against Sabalenka, who won the last meeting between the two back in 2024 in straight sets.

Here’s a breakdown of how both of these players reached this point, as well as the latest odds and prediction for Thursday’s semifinal. 

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Świątek Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Moneyline

• Aryna Sabalenka: -135
• Iga Świątek: +110

Total

• 22.5 (Over -105/Under -130)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Świątek How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, June 5
• Time: 9:00 a.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): truTV/TNT

Aryna Sabalenka: How Did They Get Here?

Sabalenka has been dominant at Roland Garros, winning in straight sets in every round, taking out No. 16 Amanda Anisimova in the fourth round and No. 8 Qinwen Zheng in the quarterfinals.

The No. 1 player in the world lost just 10 total games over the first three rounds, but she did have a little tougher time in the quarters with Zheng, even though she ultimately did not drop a set.

This is the second semifinal appearance at Roland Garros for Sabalenka in her career, and she’s made the quarters in three straight years. However, she’s never made a final and has struggled against Świątek, winning just four of their 12 matchups against each other.

Iga Świątek: How Did They Get Here?

A three-time defending champion and four-time champion overall at Roland Garros, Świątek is looking to defend her title – even though she’s an underdog in the semifinals.

Świątek has been elite on clay against Sabalenka, winning five times (she has eight total wins) against her. In addition to that, Świątek knocked off No. 12 Elena Rybakina in the fourth round and No. 13 Elina Svitolina in the quarterfinals.

Świątek did drop a set in the fourth round, but outside of that, she’s won every other match in straight sets. 

Over the last six years, Świątek has made the quarters every time at Roland Garros while reaching the final four times – she has a chance to extend that to five with a win on Thursday. 

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Świątek: What the Odds Say and Prediction

Based on these odds (Sabalenka set as a -135 favorite), the world’s No. 1 player has an implied probability of 57.45 percent to win and advance to the final.

However, I’m not buying it. 

Personally, I believe there is a ton of value in betting Świątek at plus money since she’s been so dominant on clay in her career. Not only has Świątek won the French Open in each of the last three years (and four of the last five), but she has dominated against Sabalenka on clay.

These two players have matched up six times on clay (12 times overall), and Świątek is 5-1. In 2024, she beat Sabalenka on clay twice, and it’s really hard to discount what Świątek has done at Roland Garros in her career.

Sabalenka is the No. 1 player in the world for a reason, but she has not fared well in the French Open, making just one other semifinal and never reaching the Final in seven appearances.

This price is too good to pass up for Świątek to continue her dominance at Roland Garros. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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