Aryna Sabalenka vs. Leylah Fernandez Prediction, Odds for US Open Third Round

Iain MacMillan | Aug 29, 2025

Aryna Sabalenka is a huge favorite against Leylah Fernandez in the third round of the U.S. Open. / Mike Frey-Imagn Images

The defending U.S. Open winner, Aryna Sabalenka, entered this year's edition of the tournament as the No. 1 seed and is looking to defend her title. She's also looking for her first grand slam win of the year, failing to win at either of the three grand slams so far this year.

She'll take on her first-ranked opponent of the tournament in her third-round match tonight when she takes on Canadian Leylah Fernandez.

Let's take a look at the odds and my prediction for this Friday night match.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Leylah Fernandez Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Aryna Sabalenka -720
• Leylah Fernandez +480

Total Games

• 19.5 (Over -126/Under -108)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Leylah Fernandez How to Watch

• Date: Friday, August 29
• Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2/ESPN+

Aryna Sabalenka: How They've Fared at U.S. Open

Aryna Sabalenka is the defending U.S. Open champion, defeating Jessica Pegula in last year's final. She enters this year's edition of the tournament with an 82% win percentage, which is tied with the Australian Open for her best grand slam win percentage.

Sabalenka defeated both Rebeka Masarova and Polina Kudermetova in straight sets in the first two rounds.

Leylah Fernandez: How They've Fared at U.S. Open

Fernandez made it to the finals at the 2021 U.S. Open in a Cinderella run, but she didn't make it past the second round in the three years since, including losing in the first round the past two years. She has now made it past that point, but has a tough test in front of her in Aryna Sabalenka.

She defeated a fellow Canadian, Rebecca Marino, in the opening round and then defeated Elsa Jacquemot in the second round in three sets.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Leylah Fernandez Prediction and What the Odds Say

Aryna Sabalenka enters this match as the -720 favorite, an implied probability of 87.8%.

These two have faced each other once before in their career, and it occurred during Fernandez's improbable run to the final at the 2021 U.S. Open. The Canadian defeated Sabalenka, who was the No. 2 seed, in the semifinals.

This time around, I expect Sabalenka to cruise to victory. Fernandez won the Mubadala Citi DC Open in July, but has been out of form since, going 1-3 in her four most recent matches ahead of the U.S. Open. The defending champ will get the job done in straight sets.

Pick: Leylah Fernandez to NOT win at least one set (-182) via FanDuel

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