A's vs. Astros Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, July 24

Sean Treppedi | Jul 24, 2025

Jose Altuve is on fire at Daikin Park, which points us to his home run prop on Thursday. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Athletics are slipping down to irreparable lows after a sweep to the Rangers this week. They sit in fifth place in the AL West, eight games behind fourth place as they look to claw back into the division race. 

Right-hander Luis Severino (2-5, 4.52 ERA) will get the start for Oakland after allowing two runs over five innings in a win against Cleveland his last time out. 

The Astros, meanwhile, have steadied themselves with a sweep over Arizona after dropping a set to Seattle; they currently lead the AL West by five games. 

Houston will counter with Hunter Brown (7-6, 4.05 ERA), who’s helped anchor a strong staff that's limiting opponents to just 3.78 runs per game.

Athletics vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Athletics +1.5 (-196)
• Astros -1.5 (+162)

Moneyline

• Athletics (+106)
• Astros (-124)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-128)
• Under 8.5 (+104)

Athletics vs. Astros Probable Pitchers

• Athletics: Luis Severino (3-11, 5.10 ERA)
• Astros: Jason Alexander (1-0, 8.40 ERA

Athletics vs. Astros How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, July 24, 2025
• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Daikin Park
• How to Watch (TV): Space City Network, NBCSCA
• Athletics Record: 42-62
• Astros Record: 60-42

Athletics vs. Astros Prop Bet

• Jose Altuve Home Run (+500 at FanDuel)

Jose Altuve is a strong target for a total bases prop tonight, and over 1.5 makes for a compelling angle given his recent form and matchup. Altuve has been on a tear in July, slashing a ridiculous .687 SLG. His reverse splits favor this matchup: he’s slugging .478 against right-handed pitchers this season, and faces Luis Severino, against whom he’s posted a career .313 average. 

Severino struggles mightily with hard contact and projects a .297 xBA. With some key injuries and dry spots in the lineup, the Astros will lean heavily on their veteran second baseman to spark the offense early. If Altuve sees at least four plate appearances tonight—and there’s every reason to believe he will—he’s a solid bet to get a hold of a pitch.

Athletics vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Thursday’s matchup between the Astros and Athletics presents a clear path to value on the over 8.5 total runs, with two volatile starters and a pair of bullpens that invite late scoring. Severino has been erratic, particularly over his last five outings, where he’s been shelled to the tune of a 7.16 ERA and a brutal 47% hard-hit rate per Statcast. Alexander isn’t much steadier for Houston; his xERA (5.40) suggest regression is due, and he’s already been lit up in recent stints. 

All things considered, these lineups are well equipped to post runs: the Astros rank top-three in wRC+ this month all while the A’s quietly rank seventh in slugging in that time. Notably, the A’s bullpen, despite minor recent improvement, still holds the second-worst ERA in baseball. Both clubs show better splits against right-handed pitching, and the run environment under the lights at Daikin Park tends to be hitter-friendly, setting up a high-variance, high-scoring spot.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-128 at FanDuel)

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