Astros vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, Aug. 21

Sean Treppedi | Aug 21, 2025

Gunnar Henderson's uptick in production since the All-Star break gives way to his bases prop on Thursday. / Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

The Astros hold a 1.5-game AL West lead heading into Thursday, but that cushion is courtesy of Seattle’s collapse more than Houston’s own play.

After being swept by Detroit, the Astros have now dropped five of six, a stretch that began when Baltimore took two of three in Houston last week with back-to-back shutouts. 

That series sent Houston’s bats into a nosedive, capped by a 31-inning scoreless streak before Mauricio Dubón finally snapped it with a homer on Wednesday. 

The Orioles, meanwhile, enter on a three-game winning streak and winners of six of seven, boosted by the promotion of top prospect Samuel Basallo and a lineup averaging nearly five runs per game since the break.

Jason Alexander (3-1, 4.74 ERA) gets the ball for Houston. He’s been steady, not allowing more than two earned runs in four straight starts and striking out six over six innings against Baltimore last weekend. 

For Baltimore, rookie Brandon Young (1-6, 5.68 ERA) will try to build off his best outing of the year — an eight-inning, one-hit shutout of the Astros last Friday in Houston, where he carried a perfect game into the eighth.

Astros vs. Orioles Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Astros -1.5 (+168)
• Orioles +1.5 (-205)

Moneyline

• Astros (-102)
• Orioles (-116)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-120)
• Under 8.5 (-102)

Astros vs. Orioles How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, August 21, 2025
• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Venue: Camden Yards
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Astros Record: 69-58
• Orioles Record: 59-67

Astros vs. Orioles Probable Pitchers

• Astros: Jason Alexander (3-1, 4.74 ERA)
• Orioles: Brandon Young (1-6, 5.68 ERA)

Astros vs. Orioles Prop Bet

Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120 at FanDuel)

Henderson has 29 doubles on the season and is slugging over .500 since the All-Star break, and he’s been particularly dangerous against Houston — collecting multiple extra-base knocks in last weekend’s series. With Houston’s pitching stretched thin and Alexander prone to giving up hard contact on the road (4.07 ERA, 1.19 WHIP away from home), Henderson is positioned well to cash for a couple bags. Add in the fact that the Orioles’ lineup depth forces pitchers to attack him rather than pitch around.

Astros vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Baltimore has beaten Houston in four of the last five meetings, including both shutouts last week, and their bats are heating up at the exact time Houston’s have gone cold. The Astros have been shut out four times in their last eight games and own just five hits in Wednesday’s loss to Detroit.

Even if Young regresses from his near-perfect game, Baltimore’s bullpen has stabilized with Corbin Martin closing out tight games. The lineup has been balanced with Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg all contributing some extra-base power.

Houston’s offense is just too top-heavy on Carlos Correa, who lacks protection, while Jose Altuve slumps and Jesus Sanchez remains hitless in 16 at-bats. 

Pick: Orioles (-116 at FanDuel)

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