Astros vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, June 5

Sean Treppedi | Jun 5, 2025

Mitch Keller will face a surging Astros lineup on Thursday, which poses a threat to his strikeouts prop. / Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The Pirates served Houston the same 3-0 loss they took in the series opener on Wednesday. Rookie Mike Burrows contained Astros hitters with six strikeouts in six innings while Oneil Cruz and Spencer Horwitz shared two hits apiece to add the run support. 

Now Pittsburgh hands the ball to Mitch Keller (1-7, 3.73 ERA), who’s recorded a loss in four of his last five starts. Framber Valdez (5-4, 3.12 ERA) will pitch for Houston fresh off pitching a complete game against Tampa Bay where he struck out nine and allowed three hits and one earned run. 

Houston now leads the AL West by a half game while the Pirates remain in last place of the NL Central, trailing the Cubs by 15 ½ games. 

Here are my picks for a player prop and game prediction in Thursday’s series finale. 

Astros vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Astros -1.5 (+110)
• Pirates +1.5 (-132)

Moneyline

• Astros (-154)
• Pirates (+130)

Total

• Over 8 (-120)
• Under 8 (-102)

Astros vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers

• Astros: Framber Valdez (5-4, 3.12 ERA)
• Pirates: Mitch Keller (1-7, 3.73 ERA)

Astros vs. Pirates How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, June 5, 2025
• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: PNC Park
• How to Watch (TV): SportsNet PIT, Space City Home Network
• Astros Record: 23-28
• Pirates Record: 23-39

Astros vs. Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

• Mitch Keller Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115 at FanDuel)

For one thing, Keller can limit barrel rates and holds a home run per nine under one. Though I’m skeptical as to how he’ll handle an extremely plate disciplined team in the Astros, who have struck out the sixth-fewest times per Statcast. Keller has cleared this line in four of his last five starts, but I’m opting for regression as he rarely gets swings and misses and his strikeout per nine rate hangs at 7.2.

Astros vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

It’s tough to find an argument for the Pirates already coming off a sound victory against a team that is considerably better all over the ball field. Let’s start with defense: According to Baseball Reference, Houston is the best team in the sport in defensive efficiency ratio this season. Pittsburgh is dead last. 

With or without Yordan Alvarez, the Astros pose a threat offensively to Keller and a bullpen that holds a 4.44 ERA and is weak in the strikeout department. The Astros are a couple of weighted runs created plus above league average while Pittsburgh is ranked second-to-last. 

Valdez has all the momentum hot off three straight wins and is in the 96 percentile in ground outs. The Pirates ground out at the fourth-highest rate in baseball per Statcast. 

This series has gone by a 3-0 score to both sides, so I expect the Astros to cover the run line in seizing it on Thursday.

Pick: Astros -1.5 (+110 at FanDuel)

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