Astros vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, June 4

Sean Treppedi | Jun 4, 2025

Oneil Cruz has been one of the game's top contact hitters and gets a ripe matchup with a struggling rookie, pointing to value on his home run prop Wednesday. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

There was only so much Paul Skenes could do for the Pirates in their 3-0 defeat to the Astros on Tuesday. Despite striking out eight hitters in eight innings, late home runs from Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes sealed the win for Houston as the Pirates got no run support against Lance McCullers Jr. 

Pittsburgh now turns to rookie Mike Burrows (0-1, 8.64 ERA) on Wednesday, who has posted a couple of rocky starts featuring four earned runs each since getting recalled. The Astros also will send out a rookie in Ryan Gusto. The right-hander hasn’t pitched past the fifth inning in five games — none of which he was able to record a win.

I’ll dive into how we can approach the betting lines in this interleague rookie pitching matchup on Wednesday.

Astros vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Astros -1.5 (+126)
• Pirates +1.5  (-152)

Moneyline

• Astros (-126)
• Pirates (+108)

Total

• Over 9 (-102)
• Under 9 (-120)

Astros vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers

• Astros: Ryan Gusto (3-2, 4.62 ERA)
• Pirates: Mike Burrows (0-1, 8.64 ERA)

Astros vs. Pirates How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, June 4, 2025
• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: PNC Park
• How to Watch (TV): SportsNet-PIT, Space City Home Network
• Astros Record: 33-27
• Pirates Record: 22-39

Astros vs. Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

• Oneil Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+450 at FanDuel)

Someone has to take advantage of Gusto’s high contact numbers and I’m looking to Oneil Cruz to step up and wake up this offense. Cruz is quietly one of the game’s best hitters this season; he’s in the 100 percentile in exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit percentage. Cruz leads the Pirates in home runs with 12 and is powering a 25% home run to fly ball ratio per FanGraphs. That spells trouble for Gusto, who gives up 3.2 home runs per nine, and value for Cruz’s +350 home run prop price. 

Astros vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Burrows is making his third MLB start, but owns slightly better FIP projections and showed notable improvement in Triple-A, particularly with an 11.41 strikeout per nine rate. Houston holds the edge offensively over the last-place NL Central club, ranking eighth in wRC+ since one month ago to date, while Pittsburgh is dead last, but I’m taking the Pirates to have a rebound performance against Gusto after posting a donut. He’s allowing exit velocity that ranks in the bottom nine percentile of pitchers while throwing weak spin on his fastball, which several players in this Pirates lineup are capable of making do with.

As mentioned above, Gusto is coming out of a rough May, posting an 8.25 ERA. He brings a strong fastball and slider, but with that have come control issues allowing 13 walks in 12 innings, which has pushed his walk per nine rate up to 4.38. His projected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) for the rest of the season sits around 4.56. 

Pick:  Pirates First 5 Innings ML (+105 at FanDuel)

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