Astros vs. Rangers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, May 15

Sean Treppedi | May 15, 2025

Hunter Brown has emerged as a legitimate ace for the Astros heading into a pitching showdown against the Rangers, making him a fun prop target. / Erik Williams-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers open up a four-game divisional series on Thursday, May 15, as both sit two games above the .500 line. 

Houston is rolling off a series win against the Rockies, while Texas just swept the Rockies at Globe Life Field. 

Two of the hottest arms in the American League will take the hill as Hunter Brown will face Jacob deGrom. Brown enters with a sparkling 6-1 record and 1.48 ERA, having been nearly untouchable over his past few outings. On the other side, deGrom has looked sharp this season since returning from injury, posting a 2.72 ERA while racking up strikeouts at a high clip. 

I’ll explain my prop pick and prediction for the first meeting of 2025 between these AL West contenders.

Astros vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Run Line

• Astros +1.5 (-188)
• Rangers -1.5  (+155)

Moneyline

• Astros (+112)
• Rangers (-132)

Total

• Over 7 (-110)
• Under 7 (-110)

Astros vs. Rangers Probable Pitchers

• Astros: Hunter Brown (6-1, 1.48 ERA)
• Rangers: Jacob deGrom (3-1, 2.72 ERA)

Astros vs. Rangers How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, May 14
• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• Venue: Globe Life Field 
• How to Watch (TV): Rangers Sports Network, Space City Home Network
• Astros Record: 22-20
• Rangers Record: 23-21

Astros vs. Rangers Best MLB Prop Bets

• Hunter Brown Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+104 at BetMGM)

deGrom gets a lot of attention in this market after having eclipsed six strikeouts in three of his last four outings, but the Astros are a difficult team to get out on strikes as they own the sixth-fewest total strikeouts and are one of the game’s better teams in zone contact. 

With that said, I’m taking my money to the other starting arm in what looks to be a pitching duel. 

In the recent changing of the guard in the Astros franchise, Brown has quickly established himself as the Astros’ ace this season, entering Thursday with a dominant 6-1 record and a 1.48 ERA. 

He’s struck out 58 batters over 48.2 innings and has hit the over on his strikeout prop in four straight starts, notching nine punchouts in each. Brown is striking out over 10 hitters per nine innings, is stumping them to an average exit velocity of 87.6, and his fastball velocity is up one mph in contrast to last season.

While the Rangers have found success against him in a limited sample (six outings), their offense has been underwhelming overall — ranking near the bottom of the league in runs, batting average, and strikeouts per game. 

Despite the small sample of past success against him, Brown’s recent form and electric stuff make him a strong candidate to keep mowing down hitters.

Astros vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

While Brown assumes the mound with encouraging numbers, the Houston bullpen waits in the wings behind him with the second-highest ERA of 2.69. 

deGrom hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in his last five starts and has only done so in two of eight starts this season. His strikeout rate is down a notch in comparison to years past, but he is significantly better in Arlington this year, allowing 1.88 earned runs to 4.04 on the road and limiting home runs to 0.94 to 2.51.

Neither club is necessarily impressive in generating runs this season, either, as Houston has recorded the 20th most, to Texas’s 26th. In terms of weighted runs created plus, which accounts for run creation with external factors in mind, the Astros sit at about league average, and the Rangers rank No. 21 overall. 

It’s a line that should make you sweat, but I’d rather go with ace pitching against mediocre offenses than vice versa.

Pick: Under 7 (-110 at BetMGM)

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