Astros vs. Rangers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for Tuesday, August 6th

Reed Wallach | Aug 6, 2024

Aug 5, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager (5) rounds the bases after he hits a home run against the Houston Astros during the eighth inning at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Astros continue to trade first place in the AL West with the Mariners, currently a game-and-a-half out of the top spot in the division. 

Houston will need to find its form against the Rangers as the team looks to shake off an extra innings loss on Monday against the defending World Series champions. The Astros will start veteran lefty Framber Valdez against right hander Tyler Mahle, who is set to make his season debut for the Rangers after having Tommy John surgery. 

Can Mahle hit the ground running? What about Valdez’s concerning metrics all season long? 

Let’s set the stage for this Tuesday night matchup and hand out a best bet. 

Astros vs. Rangers Odds, Spread and Total

Run Line 

• Astros: -1.5 (+136)
• Rangers: +1.5 (-164)

Moneyline

• Astros: -118
• Rangers: +100

Total: 8.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Astros vs. Rangers How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, August 6th
• Game Time: 8:05 PM EST
• Venue: GlobeLife Field
• How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports Southwest
• Astros Record: 57-55
• Rangers Record: 54-59

Astros vs. Rangers Probable Pitchers

Houston Astros: Framber Valdez (10-5, 3.56 ERA)

Texas Rangers: Tyler Mahle (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Astros vs. Rangers Key Players to Watch

Houston Astros

Yordan Alvarez: One of the most potent hitters in the big leagues, Alvarez will look to get on track after going 0-3 in the opening game of this series. Alvarez is hitting .298 with 20 home runs, but remains in the 98th percentile in xSLG and 82nd percentile in hard-hit percentage. The numbers show a mediocre season for him, but he is still petrifying for opposing pitchers. 

Texas Rangers

Tyler Mahle: Mahle only made five starts last season with the Twins before undergoing Tommy John surgery, and now is set to make his debut for the Rangers after a handful of rehab starts in hopes of a late season push for the postseason. In a small sample size last season, Mahle posted a 3.16 ERA.

Astros vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

Mahle is set to make his debut for the Rangers after Tommy John surgery, and I’ll take a shot on the home underdog.

While this is a bit of a bet on Mahle being close to normal, I can’t trust Framber Valdez, who is in the second percentile in hard-hit rate this season as his offspeed pitches have fallen off in a big way. Valdez’s 3.56 ERA is a bit fraudulent, posting a 3.85 xERA with a below league average strikeout rate. 

Both offenses are struggling, both in the bottom six of OPS since the All-Star break, but I can't justify the pitching matchup to make the Astros a road favorite.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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