Astros vs. Rangers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Friday, May 16

Sean Treppedi | May 16, 2025

Nathan Eovaldi is scorching-hot heading into Friday's matchup with the Astros, making him a good strikeout prop play. / D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers delivered what was arguably the 2025’s season's most masterful display of pitching in Thursday’s series opener where Hunter Brown and Jacob deGrom both produced eight innings in a 1-0 decision in Texas’ favor. 

After getting nine strikeouts from Hunter Brown, the Astros turn to Lance McCulllers Jr. (0-1, 15.75 ERA), who will get his third start since pitching in the 2022 World Series and subsequently undergoing arm surgery. 

The Rangers pivot to Nathan Eovaldi (4-2, 1.78 ERA), who at 35, is still as effective as ever.

Let’s breakdown how to play the odds in Friday’s follow-up meeting between two teams vying for footing within the AL West. 

Astros vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Astros +1.5 (-140)
• Rangers -1.5  (+116)

Moneyline

• Astros (+146)
• Rangers (-174)

Total

• Over 7.5 (-120)
• Under 7.5 (-102)

Astros vs. Rangers Probable Pitchers

• Astros: Lance McCulllers Jr. (0-1, 15.75 ERA)
• Rangers: Nathan Eovaldi (4-2, 1.78 ERA)

Astros vs. Rangers How to Watch

• Date: Friday, May 16
• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Venue: Globe Life Field 
• How to Watch (TV): Rangers Sports Network, Space City Home Network
• Astros Record: 22-21
• Rangers Record: 24-21

Astros vs. Rangers Best MLB Prop Bets

• Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-135 at FanDuel)

Eovaldi enters this game as one of baseball’s best pitchers in avoiding walks; he’s giving up bases at a 0.81 per nine innings rate. Aside from his command, he’s limiting contact to .220 xwOBA, which says that hitters have a limited expected run production based upon the contact quality Eovaldi is containing. 

Even though his fastball velocity is down from last season, Eovaldi is up on strikeouts, dismissing 9.7 hitters per nine innings per FanGraphs. He’s struck out at least seven in five straight starts and has hit the 5.5 line in all but two of his nine outings. 

deGrom sat down seven Astros hitters in his eight innings on Thursday. Houston isn’t a team that strikes out frequently — they have the seventh least total strikeouts in baseball. However, the Astros like chasing pitches, carrying a 29.3 chase rate per Statcast, which is the sixth-most overall. 

This is a trend Eovaldi can take advantage of as the hard-throwing right-hander is eliciting chases outside the strike zone at a 32.3% rate.

Astros vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

The Rangers have won four of Nathan Eovaldi’s last five starts and boast a strong 16-8 record at home, while the Astros have struggled on the road with a 7-12 mark.

McCullers is still getting his toes back in the water after struggling heavily in his last outing, acquiring no strikeouts and allowing seven earned runs in the first inning against the Reds. 

If things go south early again, he’s backed by an elite bullpen, but I like the Rangers offense to pile on after starving for runs on Thursday. It’s a lineup that doesn’t bring a ton of offensive reliability, ranking toward the bottom of MLB in all major offensive stats, but positive regression could be on the horizon as the Rangers are just outside the top-10 teams in expected slug percentage.

The Rangers are on a six-game heater heading into Friday and that is all thanks to world-class pitching. Offensive question marks aside, I’ll take the hotter team and pitcher with confidence.

Pick: Rangers -1.5 (+116 at FanDuel)

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