Astros vs. Rays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, May 21

The Astros are favored on the road with Hunter Brown on the mound.

Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown has a 1.43 ERA this season, leading to the Astros being favored on Wednesday. / Erik Williams-Imagn Images

After splitting the first two games of their early-week series, the Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays will play a rubber match on Wednesday afternoon at George M. Steinbrenner Field.

The Rays have been displaced in the 2025 season, and they’ve struggled a bit at home, winning just 12 of 30 games entering Wednesday’s matchup.

Things won’t get any easier against All-Star candidate Hunter Brown (1.43 ERA), who has been lights out for Houston in the 2025 season. Brown will take on Rays starter Taj Bradley as Houston aims to stay in the mix for the top spot in the AL West.

Oddsmakers have the Astros set as road favorites in this game, but should bettors trust them after Tuesday’s 3-2 loss?

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to bet on in the prop market, and my game's prediction for this series finale. 

Astros vs. Rays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Astros -1.5 (+114)
• Rays +1.5 (-135)

Moneyline

• Astros: -142
• Rays: +120

Total

• 8.5 (Over -118/Under -102)

Astros vs. Rays Probable Pitchers

• Houston: Hunter Brown (6-2, 1.43 ERA)
• Tampa Bay: Taj Bradley (3-3, 4.80 ERA)

Astros vs. Rays How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, May 21
• Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• How to Watch (TV): FDSSUN and SCHN
• Astros record: 25-23
• Rays record: 22-26

Astros vs. Rays Best MLB Prop Bets

Rays Best MLB Prop Bet

• Taj Bradley OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-150)

This season, Bradley ranks in just the 28th percentile in walk percentage, allowing 3.9 walks per nine innings. In each of his first three MLB seasons (including this one), Bradley has allowed over three walks per nine frames.

So, I’m fading him in this market on Wednesday afternoon. 

Bradley has walked two or more batters in seven of his nine outings in the 2025 campaign. While the Astros aren’t elite at drawing walks, I expect them to work two free passes against Bradley. 

Astros vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why I’m backing Hunter Brown and the Astros:

Houston Astros youngster Hunter Brown is making a real case to be an All-Star this season. He has a 1.43 ERA across nine starts, leading Houston to a 6-3 record in those games.

Brown is coming off eight innings of three-hit, one-run ball in his last outing, and he’s given up just nine earned runs all season long.

That bodes well for Houston on the road on Wednesday afternoon against Taj Bradley and the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have struggled at home this season – they’re playing at the New York Yankees’ spring training facility – winning just 12 of 30 games.

While Tampa Bay picked up a win on Tuesday, the Astros have a significant advantage on the mound in this game. Bradley has struggled in May, allowing nine runs in 15.1 innings of work (5.28 ERA).

Tampa Bay is 5-4 in his nine outings, but the righty has an ERA pushing 5.00. The Astros also have a better bullpen ERA than the Rays this season. Neither of these teams has been elite on offense – they both rank in the bottom 10 in the league in OPS – but Brown has been too good to open 2025 to pass up at such a short price on Wednesday. 

Pick: Astros Moneyline (-142 at DraftKings)

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