Astros vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Friday, Aug. 1

Sean Treppedi | Aug 1, 2025

Hunter Brown's strikeout prop offers plus-money value against a swing-happy Sox club Friday. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Astros enter Friday night in a tight AL West race, sitting just above .500 with a top-three pitching staff but a heavily depleted lineup. 

It’s been a productive last month for the Red Sox, who face them now having won nine of their last ten games at Fenway and climbing into AL Wild Card contention. 

Houston will send out Hunter Brown (9-5, 2.54 ERA), one of the league’s elite arms whose 2.54 ERA ranks third in the AL and whose strikeout and ground-ball combination makes him a Cy Young contender. 

Boston turns to Cooper Criswell (0-1, 5.06 ERA), a long reliever with just six appearances this year, all out of the bullpen, and no outing longer than three innings.

Astros vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Astros -1.5 (+134)
• Red Sox +1.5 (-162)

Moneyline

• Astros (-126)
• Red Sox (+108)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-115)
• Under 8.5 (-105)

Astros vs. Red Sox Probable Pitchers

• Astros: Hunter Brown (9-5, 2.54 ERA)
• Red Sox: Cooper Criswell (1-0, 5.06 ERA)

Astros vs. Red Sox How to Watch

• Date: Friday, August 1, 2025
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Fenway Park
• How to Watch (TV): Apple TV+
• Astros Record: 62-47
• Red Sox Record: 59-51

Astros vs. Red Sox Prop Bet

• Hunter Brown Over 6.5 (+108 at FanDuel)

Brown is a Cy Young candidate with value because he ranks sixth in all of baseball in strikeouts and owns a 42% strikeout rate with both his fastball and curveball — elite swing-and-miss pitches that give him the tools to exploit Boston’s aggressive lineup. The Red Sox are one of baseball’s most ambitious swingers, ranking third in total strikeouts this season and have struggled to make consistent contact against power arms. Brown’s 45.5% ground-ball rate also helps him stay deep into games for more strikeout opportunities. He’s cleared 7+ strikeouts in 11 of his 21 starts, and the Red Sox have struck out 71 times in their last 10 games.

Astros vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

I like a low-scoring game Friday with Brown ranking in the top 7% of MLB in hard-hit rate allowed and top 10% in strikeout rate. He’s held opponents to two runs or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts and has gone at least six innings in eight of them. The Red Sox, while hot offensively, still strike out at the third-highest clip in the league and now face one of the toughest pitchers in baseball to make contact against. 

Boston’s pitching plans are more chaotic with Criswell likely serving as an opener, but the Red Sox bullpen is rested and ranks top-five in ERA over the last 30 days. Houston’s lineup, weakened by key absences like Alvarez, Pena and Paredes, has posted the 23rd-ranked wRC+ since the All-Star break. Both teams have favored the under this season, and this matchup sets up for that to continue

Pick: Under 8.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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