Ball State vs. Buffalo Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 12

Reed Wallach | Nov 11, 2024

Sep 28, 2024; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Buffalo Bulls quarterback C.J. Ogbonna (7) throws a pass against the Connecticut Huskies in the second quarter at Rentschler Field at Pratt & Whitney Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images / David Butler II-Imagn Images

While Ball State vs. Buffalo may lack some serious juice on the surface, the real key in this one is can the Bulls clinch a bowl berth on Tuesday night MACtion, there is some excitement around this one. 

Buffalo’s first-year head coach Pete Lembo will lead his Bulls against a team he used to coach in Ball State, who he coached from 2011 to 2015. Can Buffalo resume play out of a BYE and get it done for its coach against a Ball State team that has been competitive in MAC play, far more than expected?

Here’s how to bet on this MACtion matchup. 

Ball State vs. Buffalo Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Ball State: +4.5 (-105)
• Buffalo: -4.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Ball State: +165
• Buffalo: -200

Total: 53.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Ball State vs. Buffalo How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, November 12th
• Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
• Venue: UB Stadium 
• How to Watch (TV): CBS Sports Network
• Ball State Record: 3-6
• Buffalo Record: 5-4

Ball State vs. Buffalo Key Players to Watch

Ball State 

Kadin Semonza: The freshman quarterback looked strong last week against Miami (Ohio), passing for 280 yards, but turnovers and three stacks stopped the Cardinals' chances of getting a stunning upset at home. The Ball State offense continues to trend upwards and will face the easiest defense it's seen in three weeks. 

Buffalo 

CJ Ogbonna: The senior quarterback has been far better than expected this season, passing for 1,527 yards with 14 total touchdowns and only two interceptions. While the Bulls offense hasn’t been all that explosive, it's been able to minimize mistakes and stay competitive in games at times due to its ability to stay on schedule. 

Ball State vs. Buffalo Prediction and Pick

While Ball State has been trending up this season, I will side with the home favorite in this matchup. 

This is a big upgrade for Ball State, who has been frisky as a big underdog this season, covering three straight games as a double-digit MAC underdog, but this point spread implies that the team is very capable of winning this game. 

Keep in mind, just a few weeks ago, Ball State was a 10-point underdog at home against Western Michigan, who was about a pick ‘em at Buffalo the week after. 

Buffalo’s defense has been sturdy under Lembo, 73rd in yards per play allowed and at the national average in terms of explosive play rate. The defense makes you drive the length of the field to convert scoring chances, which is an issue for Ball State, which is outside the top 100 in EPA/Play. 

Meanwhile, Ball State’s defense remains incredibly poor. Bottom 10 in most key metrics, including yards per play, EPA/Play, and yards per carry allowed. Against a Buffalo team that is more than capable on the ground, top 20 in explosive rush rate, and is top 20 in limiting turnovers, the Bulls should be able to close this game out with a home cover. 

PICK: Buffalo -4.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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