Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Sonego Prediction, Odds for Wimbledon Round 4 (Shelton Favored)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Sonego match in Round 4 at Wimbledon.

Ben Shelton is favored to advance to the quarterfinals. / Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

American Ben Shelton – the No. 10 player in the world – is looking to advance to his first quarterfinal at Wimbledon in his career, and he’s favored to do so against Lorenzo Sonego on Monday. 

Shelton has yet to drop a set at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, but he has needed several tiebreakers in order to get it done. 

Oddsmakers have him set as a -380 favorite on Monday, but Sonego won’t be an easy out after he upset No. 29 Brandon Nakashima in the third round.

Let’s break down the odds, the path for each player to make the fourth round and my prediction for this matchup. 

Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Sonego Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Moneyline

• Ben Shelton: -380
• Lorenzo Sonego: +300

Total

• 40.5 (Over -125/Under -110)

Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Sonego How to Watch

• Date: Monday, July 7
• Time: 9:30 a.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Ben Shelton: How Did They Get Here

Shelton has three straight wins in straight sets, knocking off Márton Fucsovics 6-3, 7-6, 6-2 on Saturday to advance to Round 4.

This is the third appearance at Wimbledon for Shelton, who made the fourth round in last year’s tournament before getting knocked out. He’s hoping to move to 4-1 in his career against Sonego, who knocked Shelton out of the French Open back in 2023. 

These two met in the Australian Open (in the quarterfinals) and the French Open (in the Round of 128) and Shelton ended up winning both meetings. Can he keep it going in another Grand Slam on Monday? 

Lorenzo Sonego: How Did They Get Here

Sonego has made the fourth round at Wimbledon one other time in his career, and this year’s Australian Open was his best showing at a Grand Slam – before he lost to Shelton in the quarterfinals.

The Italian is coming off a five-set win over Nakashima in the third round, and he needed four sets to advance in the second round as well. 

This is going to be a tough test against one of the best servers on the men’s side in the entire tournament. 

Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Sonego Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the odds, Shelton has an implied probability of 79.17 percent to advance to the quarterfinals at Wimbledon for the first time in his career.

However, I think the total is the best way to bet on this match.

These two players have faced off a ton in big spots in their careers – especially in 2025 – and both meetings this year have been long battles.

In the Australian Open quarterfinals, Shelton needed 45 games (four sets) to put away Sonego, and their meeting on clay in the French Open was even longer.

That match went to five sets and had 46 total games. Both of their meetings in 2025 would easily clear this total, and Sonego has already played some long matches at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club.

Plus, Shelton played 30 games in a straight set victory over Fucsovics on Saturday. I’m expecting this to be a long match on Monday morning. 

Pick: OVER 40.5 Games (-125 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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