Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Christian Yelich Primed for Homer on Monday)

Who will hit a long ball on Monday night?
Jun 8, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA;  Milwaukee Brewers designated hitter Christian Yelich (22) hits an RBI single against the Detroit Tigers in the first inning at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 8, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Milwaukee Brewers designated hitter Christian Yelich (22) hits an RBI single against the Detroit Tigers in the first inning at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports / Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Let's talk home runs on Monday.

It's a smaller big league slate with Monday being a travel day, but there are plenty of sluggers taking the field, including Christian Yelich out west agaisnt the Angels poor pitching staff.

There will be winds helping hitters across the country, pushing out of the stadium and primed to help lead to more home runs at Citizens Bank Park and Wrigley Field, which is where I targeted today's home run card.

Here are my three favorite home run prop bets for Monday's card.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday, June 17

  • Bryce Harper (+300)
  • Seiya Suziki (+480)
  • Christian Yelich (+540)

Bryce Harper

Harper is in the mix for an MVP this season, and he should help his case on Monday at home against soft-tossing Randy Vasquez.

Vasquez is in the first percentile in xBA with an xSLG that is in the bottom 10 percentile, per MLBStatcast, making for big trouble against Harper, who has 10 homers against righties and ranks in the 88th percentile in hard-hit percentage.

Harper has 10 home runs on the year, and is slugging .521 while posting an 88th percentile hard-hit percentage. With the winds blowing out at nearly 13 miles per hour at CBP, I like Harper to pounce on one.

Seiya Suzuki

The winds are blowing out at Wrigley Field at 16 miles per hour, setting up for a big time output from hitters in Chicago on Monday. 

Suzuki is my target, who is hitting far better than his .267/.335/.456 slashes would indicate. He ranks in the 94th percentile in average exit velocity, 95th percentile in hard-hit percentage and is in the 86th percentile in xSLG. 

He is hitting very well against righties, smashing five home runs with a .477 slugging percentage, and the Giants have a bottom five bullpen. He has already hit three home runs in June, tied for the most in any month this season. So I’m going to ride the hot hand at home in favorable conditions. 

Christian Yelich 

Yelich is hitting the ball incredibly well this season, batting .333 on the yea, but only has six home runs, depressing his odds to hit a home run on Monday. 

However, Yelich is in a good spot, as I’m looking to sell high on Angels starter Jose Soriano, who is off back-to-back good starts that feature an ERA of 1.93. 

He has been shelled by hard contact, 11th percentile and 20th percentile in average exit velocity. Soriano lacks a punch out pitch, 20% strikeout rate, and Yelich’s odds stand out to me with promising underlying metrics.  


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Reed Wallach

REED WALLACH

Reed is a Senior Editor at SI Betting. He grew up in New Jersey and graduated from the University of Wisconsin. His passion lies with the Brooklyn Nets, but is always hunting for an edge.