Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Predictions for Aaron Judge, Anthony Santander)

Aaron Judge is due to hit his 52nd homer of the season after a down week by his standards.

New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge. / Rafael Suanes-USA TODAY Sports

Is Aaron Judge due?

The New York Yankees slugger and American League MVP favorite has not hit a home run since Aug. 25, which feels like an eternity given the season he’s had in 2024. 

With the Yankees at home to open September against a home-run prone pitcher in Miles Mikolas, Judge (+210) is one of the players I’m backing to go yard today.

Plus, there’s another AL East slugger that could have some value in a favorable matchup. 

Let’s dive into the plus-money home run picks for Sunday, Sept. 1. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Sunday, Sept. 1

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Anthony Santander to Hit a Home Run (+290)
• Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+210)

Anthony Santander to Hit a Home Run (+290)

Baltimore Orioles slugger – and All-Star – Anthony Santander is in a solid spot to hit a home run against a weak Colorado Rockies pitching staff on Sunday.

A switch hitter, Santander will begin from the right side against lefty Ty Blach, who has allowed 13 homers in just 63.2 innings of work so far this season.

While Blach may be used as just an opener, the Colorado bullpen is awful, ranking dead last in the league in ERA (5.57) while allowing 68 home runs.

Santander has solid splits from both sides of the plate, slugging over .500 against both lefties and righties. He’s a solid bet to hit his 40th homer of the season on Sunday. 

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+210)

I mean, if Judge is going to be back at +210 or higher, we have to bet on him, right?

After going on a tear over a week ago, Judge has cooled off and is still sitting at 51 homers on the season. 

He now gets to take on Mikolas, and the St. Louis Cardinals starter has allowed 21 homers in 27 outings while posting a 5.23 ERA. 

Judge should tee off on him in this one, and the Yankees slugger hasn’t had many stretches where he’s gone this long without a homer on the season. In fact, there are just three instances since May 1 where Judge went more than five games without a long ball. 

I’ll back him to hit No. 52 on Sunday. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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