Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Continues Hot Stretch in Los Angeles)

Reed Wallach | Aug 12, 2024

Aug 8, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays first base Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) celebrates his to run home run in the fifth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Gerry Angus-USA TODAY Sports / Gerry Angus-USA TODAY Sports

With a condensed Major League Baseball slate on Monday, it could be tougher to find some home run hitters, but let's stick to who is reliable in the mashing department.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has re-emerged as one of the premier hitters in all of the big leagues, and is in a good spot to continue his fine form on Monday against the Angels.

Keep reading for two other hitters that are set to go yard, including a Monday night longshot pick on an All-Star!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday, Aug. 12

• Matt Wallner: +450
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: +370
• Jurickson Profar: +700

Matt Wallner

Wallner has been crushing the ball in spot duties in the Twins outfield, slugging .620 with an OPS of 1.013 in 92 at bats for Minnesota. 

The 2019 draft pick is mashing hard-hit balls on 64% of balls in play with a barrel percentage of 33%. He is a true power hitter and draws a matchup on Monday against Brady Singer of the Royals. 

The right hander has been vulnerable to hard contact, ranking in the 39th percentile, and has allowed 11 home runs to left handed hitters in 23 appearances this season with a WHIP of 1.65.

Wallner destroys righties, hitting .284 with a slugging percentage of .654 and bashing all seven home runs against those types of pitchers.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 

After a slow start to the season, Guerrero continues to enjoy a torrid stretch dating back to the All-Star game. Since the Midsummer Classic, he is hitting .463 with a slugging percentage of .950, knocking nine home runs in 80 at bats. 

He will face rookie Davis Daniel of the Angels on Monday, who is a soft tossing right hander, who has allowed a ton of hard contact (nearly 40%) this season and when he is finished will hand the ball to a bottom 10 bullpen. 

I’m going to trust one of the most potent hitters in the bigs to take care of business on Monday at a reasonable price tag. 

Jurickson Profar

Profar has emerged as one of the most reliable hitters in the Padres lineup, hitting .297 with a slugging percentage of .486. Not known for his power, Profar has mashed a career high 19 homers already this season while hitting from both sides of the plate and ranking in the 77th percentile in terms of average exit velocity. 

Profar can hit lefties well, boasting a .328 average with a slugging percentage of .536 and seven home runs, but also righties, mashing 12 homers with a slugging percentage of .464. The Padres will face Marco Gonzales for a bulk of this game, a soft tossing lefty, which can lead to favorable splits for the San Diego utility man, but even if the Pirates turn to the bullpen, Profar has proven he can hit all types of pitchers. 

At long odds, I’m willing to bank on Profar to cash in at PETCO Park, where he has hit 10 of his 19 home runs and is slugging at a healthy .516 clip. 

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