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Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Fade Patrick Corbin vs. Cubs)
With each passing day in the MLB season we're getting more and more information to use in our handicapping process, including when it comes to breaking down pitchers.
Thankfully for us bettors, there's one pitcher making his 2025 debut who we don't need any recent numbers from to know we should be betting against him. That pitcher is Patrick Corbin, who is making his first start with the Texas Rangers.
Let's dive into my favorite player props for Tuesday's action, including how to bet against Corbin's first start of the season.
Top MLB Prop Bets Today
- Patrick Corbin OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+100) via DraftKings
- Sal Frelick OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120) via BetMGM
- Jeffrey Springs UNDER 4.5 Strikouts (-142) via FanDuel
Rangers vs. Cubs Prop Bet
Patrick Corbin has been the worst starting pitcher in the Majors the past five years but he continues to get a starting gig. He hasn't had an ERA lower than 5.2 since 2020 while recording 13+ losses in each of those seasons. I see no sign that he's going to turn things around in 2025 so I'm going to fade him in his 2025 debut by taking the plus-money bet on Corbin to allowed at least three earned runs against a feisty Cubs team.
Pick: Patrick Corbin OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+100)
Brewers vs. Rockies Prop Bet
Sal Frelick has been hot to start the season, sporting a batting average of .378 and an on base percentage of .452. Now, he and the Milwaukee Brewers get to play at a hitter-friendly Coors Field. I'm going to take a shot at plus-money on him recording at least two total bases tonight. I'm going to try to buy low on Frelick before he either regresses, or the market adjusts.
Pick: Sal Frelick OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Padres vs. Athletics Prop Bet
The Padres are the most disciplined team in the Majors at the plate. They have struck out on just 16.8% of plate appearances so far this season, the best mark in the Majors.
Tonight, they take on a strikeout merchant in Jeffrey Springs, who's averaging 12.0 strikeouts per nine innings this season. With that being said, the Athletics' pitcher may not string together a long enough start against this Padres lineup to be able to record five strikeouts. I'll take the UNDER.
Pick: Jeffrey Springs UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-142)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!
-eb6ee9a9f2179a90cbfe0d8c654d1a62.jpg "Iain MacMillan")
Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.