Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Lions vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 6

Breaking down the top picks and predictions for the Detroit Lions-Kansas City Chiefs matchup in NFL Week 6.

Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs is a great prop target in Week 6. / Cara Owsley/ The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A potential Super Bowl matchup – if you still believe in Patrick Mahomes – takes place in Week 6 on Sunday Night Football, as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Detroit Lions.

Detroit has won four games in a row and is in the mix for the No. 1 seed in the NFC this season despite losing both of its coordinators in the offseason (Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn). Dan Campbell’s group is resilient, and it still has the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL even with Johnson now in Chicago.

Meanwhile, Andy Reid’s Chiefs are just 2-3 in the 2025 season and have dropped all three of their games that were decided by one possession. After losing in primetime on Monday night against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Chiefs are set as favorites against arguably the hottest team in the NFL this week.

So, should we bet on them to win? 

All week long, the SI Betting team has been making picks for this primetime matchup, and I’ve decided to curate some of our favorite picks and props to give bettors a crash course on betting Lions vs. Chiefs.

Let’s take a look at all of the top picks for Sunday night’s matchup. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Lions vs. Chiefs

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Detroit Lions Moneyline (+120) vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Iain MacMillan 
• David Montgomery Anytime TD (-110) – Peter Dewey
• Patrick Mahomes OVER 259.5 Passing Yards (-112) – Peter Dewey
• Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 71.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey

Detroit Lions Moneyline (+120) vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Iain MacMillan 

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan broke down his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column – where he picks every game, every week – and he’s riding with Detroit on the road: 

I was ready to bet against the Lions this week based on their recent competition, but DVOA, which adjusts for strength of opponent, has the Lions ranked as the No. 1-ranked team in the league. Not only do they rank in the top four on both offense and defense, but they're also fourth in special teams DVOA. Their defense has been far better than people give them credit for, ranking sixth in opponent EPA and third in opponent success rate.

The Chiefs' win against the Ravens doesn't look quite as good as it did a couple of weeks ago. I'm not quite sold on this team belonging in the elite tier in the NFL this season, so I'll back the Lions in this spot.

David Montgomery Anytime TD (-110) – Peter Dewey

I don’t mind a play for either of Detroit’s running backs – Jahmyr Gibbs or David Montgomery – but Montgomery does have a slightly better price on Sunday night: 

David Montgomery ran for 25 touchdowns combined in the 2023 and 2024 seasons, and now he has a terrific matchup in Week 6 against a Kansas City defense that has really struggled to stop the run.

The Chiefs are allowing 4.8 yards per carry this season – the sixth-most in the NFL – and they’ve given up six rushing scores in five games. KC also ranks just 29th in the NFL in EPA/Rush on defense. 

That sets up well for Montgomery and the Lions, who are sixth in the NFL in rushing yards and have eight rushing scores in five games. After a down Week 4, Montgomery bounced back with 18 carries in Week 5 and scored his fourth touchdown of the season.

The preferred goal-line back for the Lions, Montgomery should have a chance to punch one in on Sunday night. 

Patrick Mahomes OVER 259.5 Passing Yards (-112) – Peter Dewey

Mahomes has cleared this prop in two games in a row, and he may be forced to throw the ball a lot on Sunday against a stingy Detroit run defense: 

The return of Xavier Worthy has worked wonders for Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense, as the star quarterback has thrown for 270 and 318 yards in his last two games, clearing this line in both of them. 

Prior to that, Mahomes had failed to throw for more than 258 yards in a game this season, and he even fell short of the 200-yard mark in the team’s Week 2 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.

This is a tough matchup against a Detroit defense that is No. 3 in EPA/Rush and No. 10 in EPA/Pass, but I expect the Chiefs to attack through the air, especially if they fall behind in those one.

Detroit is just 15th in net yards per attempt this season, and it has benefitted from playing some subpar quarterbacks in Joe Flacco and Jake Browning over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s running game has been bolstered by Mahomes using his legs (57 or more rushing yards in three games) all season. 

As the Chiefs’ offense continues to get healthier, I think Mahomes starts to put up some of the big passing numbers that we’ve grown accustomed to in his career.  

Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 71.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey

Similar to my pick for Montgomery, I am expecting the Lions to control this game on the ground, making Gibbs a great prop target: 

This is a terrific matchup for Gibbs and the Lions’ running game, as the Chiefs rank sixth in the NFL in yards per carry allowed (4.8) and are just 29th in EPA/Rush.

I don’t mind picks for either Gibbs or Montgomery, but Gibbs is the back that sees the field more often, playing 61.1 percent of the Lions’ snaps in 2025. 

He’s also cleared 90 rushing yards twice this season, and has at least 12 carries in each of his last four games. Gibbs is a little more explosive than Montgomery (the former first-round pick is averaging 4.6 yards per carry), and I think he has a chance to break a major run that could put him within striking distance of this number.

Either way, betting on the Lions’ running backs is the way to go in Week 6.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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