Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Lions vs. Eagles on Sunday Night Football in Week 11

Breaking down the best picks and predictions for the Philadelphia Eagles-Detroit Lions matchup in NFL Week 11.

The Detroit Lions and quarterback Jared Goff are underdogs on Sunday night. / Peter Casey-Imagn Images

A massive matchup for the NFC playoff picture takes place on Sunday Night Football in Week 11, as the Philadelphia Eagles host the Detroit Lions and Jared Goff.

The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles remain in the No. 1 spot in the NFC, as they took down the Green Bay Packers in Week 10 on Monday night. Still, the team’s offense has been shaky this season, scoring just 10 points against Green Bay and struggling at times to get A.J. Brown and Saquon Barkley going. 

Now, the Eagles have to face another NFC contender in the Lions, who blew out Washington in Week 10 and took the top spot in the NFC North back with Philly’s win over Green Bay.

Oddsmakers have set the Eagles as favorites at home in this game, but one of our editors believes that an upset may be brewing in this primetime matchup.

That’s one of several picks that the SI Betting team has given out for this game, and I’ve put together some of our favorites – and a breakdown for each – to help bettors wager on this primetime matchup. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Lions vs. Eagles

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Detroit Lions Moneyline (+120) vs. Philadelphia Eagles – Iain MacMillan
• Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD (+130) – Peter Dewey
• Saquon Barkley UNDER 69.5 Rushing Yards (-114) – Peter Dewey
• Jameson Williams OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards (-114) – Peter Dewey

Detroit Lions Moneyline (+120) vs. Philadelphia Eagles – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bets for every game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s backing the Lions to pull off the upset: 

I'm still not completely sold on the Eagles. Meanwhile, the Lions continue to somehow be underrated in the betting market. We all know how efficient and dynamic their offense is, but their defense has been unbelievable this season, ranking fifth in defensive DVOA, 10th in opponent EPA per play, and seventh in opponent yards per play, giving up just 5.0 yards per snap.

The Eagles still have plenty of issues, especially on defense. They've been better of late, but if you're going to give me the Lions at plus-money in this matchup, I'm going to take it.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD (+130) – Peter Dewey

There are only two players that have been targeted in the red zone more than St. Brown this season, making him a great bet at this price on Sunday: 

This season, Amon-Ra St. Brown has found the end zone eight times in nine games, and he’s scored in two of the last three weeks.

Jared Goff always looks St. Brown’s way in big spots, and the former fourth-round pick has a whopping 82 targets and 64 receptions in just nine games. In the red zone, he’s been a major threat, racking up the third-most red-zone targets in the NFL (17). Only Davante Adams and Trey McBride have been targeted more inside the 20-yard line.

Brown has converted those 17 targets into 13 catches for 79 yards and seven scores. He also has 11 targets inside the 10-yard line, so a lot of these looks are coming in the end zone. 

I think Brown is a steal at +130 to score in Week 11. 

Saquon Barkley UNDER 69.5 Rushing Yards (-114) – Peter Dewey

It’s been a tough year for Saquon Barkley running the football, and now he has to face a top-10 run defense on Sunday: 

This season, Barkley has rushed for 70 or more yards in just two games – Week 2 against the Kansas City Chiefs and Week 8 against the New York Giants.

He’s averaging just 64.3 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry, way down from his numbers last season (5.8 yards per carry, 125.3 rushing yards per game). 

While it wasn’t expected that Barkley would run for 2,000 yards again, he’s taken a major step back this season, making him a risky bet in this prop market against Detroit.

The Lions rank ninth in the NFL in EPA/Rush this season, and they’re allowing just 4.0 yards per carry – tied for the ninth-best mark in the league.

Barkley had 22 carries last week and failed to clear this line, and he’s had five games overall this season with 18 or more rushes and less than 70 rushing yards. I can’t back him at this number on Sunday night. 

Jameson Williams OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards (-114) – Peter Dewey

I’m buying the recent play of Jameson Williams, who scored and went for 119 yards in Week 10: 

Jameson Williams has put together an up-and-down season for the Lions, but I’m buying him at this number in Week 11.

Williams has 66 and 119 receiving yards in his last two games, catching 10 of his 13 targets over that stretch. He’s also cleared 48.5 receiving yards in four of his nine games this season.

While the workload for Williams has been inconsistent – he has four games with less than five targets – he remains a big-play threat that only needs a few touches to clear a number this small. 

I’ll bet on him to have a third game in a row with at least 50 yards receiving.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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