Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Week 14 (Bills vs. Rams Will Be Low-Scoring Affair)

Iain MacMillan | Dec 8, 2024

Bet the UNDER in the NFL Week 14 showdown between the Bills and Rams. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

It's time to lock in your bets for Sunday's NFL Week 14 action. We are just hours away from opening kick-off before we have a loaded slate of games for us to watch.

If you're looking for a few bets to place, allow me to help you out. I've done the research this week and have locked in my wagers. In this article, I'm going to give you my best bet on a favorite, an underdog, and total. Let's dive into it.

NFL Week 14 Best Bets

• Eagles -13.5 (-110) vs. Panthers via BetMGM
• Bills vs. Rams UNDER 49.5 (-108) via DraftKings
• Chargers +180 vs. Chiefs via Caesars

Panthers vs. Eagles Prediction

The Eagles are massive favorites to the Panthers in Week 14, but for good reason. This week marks a great time to sell high on a Panthers team that has convinced people they're better than they are in recent weeks. They're still 28th in EPA per play and 31st in opponent EPA per play.

They won't be able to hang an Eagles team that has been elite on both sides of the football. Saquon Barkley, who is in the MVP conversation, will cut through the Panthers' defense like a hot knife through butter. Carolina ranks 31st in opponent rush EPA and dead last in opponent rush success rate while also allowing 4.8 yards per carry.

Philadelphia will be able to score at will and run away with the win in this NFC showdown.

Pick: Eagles -13.5 (-110)

Bills vs. Rams Prediction

The Rams have stormed back after a slow start to their season, but I still have some doubts about their offense. Matt Stafford has been an average quarterback this season and the Rams offense ranks 30th in third down conversion rate (32.58%) and 19th in red zone touchdown percentage (53.49%).

Meanwhile, their defense has been fantastic. Since Week 7, they're seventh in opponent EPA per play and ninth in opponent success rate. They also rank sixth in red zone defense, keeping teams to scoring a touchdown on just 46.51% of red zone trips against them.

The Bills defense has also been fantastic of late, ranking fifth in opponent EPA per play since Week 7 while also ranking eighth in red zone defense.

This total is too high for a game involving these two great defenses.

Pick: UNDER 49.5 (-108)

Chargers vs. Chiefs Prediction

I took the Chargers as my upset pick for this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets":

It's time for us to call out the Chiefs for what they are; Frauds. If you take away previous seasons and just focus on the 2024 campaign, they are one of the worst 11-1 teams in NFL history and have not played nearly as well as their record indicates. I was willing to forgive poor performance early in the season but needing last-second plays to go in their favor to beat the likes of the Panthers and Raiders is enough for me to finally lose faith in this team.

Let's take a look at where they rank in key metrics:

• Net Yards per Play: 19th (-0.1)
• EPA per play: 9th
• Opponent EPA per play: 15th
• Red Zone offense: 24th (52.08%)
• Red Zone defense: 10th (51.28%)
• Average scoring margin: 11th (+4.5)

The Chargers outrank them in every one of the above metrics except for EPA per Play (16th) yet they're this big of underdogs? I don't buy it.

Finally, the key to beating the Chiefs is stopping them on third down, which is where their offense thrives. The Chargers rank second in third down defense with opponents converting for a first down just 33.33% of the time. They're also second in opponent EPA and fifth in opponent success rate on third down, making them a perfect fit to take down the defending champs.

Keep the points, give me the Chargers on the moneyline on Sunday night.

Pick: Chargers +180

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!