Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Bills vs. Falcons on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 6)

Breaking down the best picks and prediction for the Buffalo Bills-Atlanta Falcons matchup on Monday night in Week 6.

The Atlanta Falcons and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. are underdogs in Week 6. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are looking to bounce back from their first loss of the 2025 season when they take on the Atlanta Falcons in Week 6 on Monday Night Football.

Atlanta is 2-2 this season and coming off a Week 5 bye, and it’s set as a home underdogs in the odds at the best betting sites for this matchup. 

The Falcons have some of the best offensive weapons in the NFL, but Michael Penix Jr. has been up and down in his second season in the NFL. That’s going to make it tough for the Falcons to compete with an elite Buffalo offense that is desperate to bounce back after a few costly turnovers against the New England Patriots in Week 5. 

Buffalo is still firmly in the mix for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but can it pull out a road win and cover in Week 6? 

The SI Betting team has been making picks for this matchup all week long, and I’ve decided to pull some of our favorites together in one place to give bettors a one-stop shop when it comes to wagering on this Monday Night Football showdown. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Bills vs. Falcons

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Atlanta Falcons +4.5 (-105) vs. Buffalo Bills – Iain MacMillan
• James Cook Anytime TD (-155) – Peter Dewey
• Bijan Robinson OVER 76.5 Rushing Yards (-114) – Peter Dewey

Atlanta Falcons +4.5 (-105) vs. Buffalo Bills – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan broke down his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column – where he picks every game, every week – and he’s taking a shot on the underdogs in Week 6: 

The Buffalo Bills were exposed on Sunday Night Football. They are an elite offense that has plenty of issues on defense. Now, they have to take on a Falcons team that's coming off a BYE that has looked extremely strong defensively to start the season. The Falcons lead the NFL in Defensive DVOA, and overall, they're fifth in the league in Net Yards per Play at +0.8. Meanwhile, the Bills are 22nd in Defensive DVOA and are ninth in Net Yards per Play at +0.7.

The biggest question mark in this game is which version of Michael Penix Jr. will show up in this game, but I'm banking on his preparation being locked in after a week off. Atlanta may not win, but I'll take the 4.5 points with the Falcons on their home field on Monday Night Football.

James Cook Anytime TD (-155) – Peter Dewey

This matchup features two elite running backs in James Cook and Bijan Robinson, and I love taking Cook to find the end zone on Monday night: 

This is a great matchup for James Cook and the Buffalo running game, as Atlanta ranks 26th in the NFL in EPA/Rush defensively.

The Falcons are allowing 4.6 yards per carry this season, and while they’ve only allowed two rushing touchdowns, Cook has been a touchdown machine in recent seasons.

After leading the NFL in rushing scores in 2024, Cook has found the end zone five times on the ground this season, scoring in every game except Week 5 against the New England Patriots.

Cook is also playing a higher snap share this season than he did in 2024, playing 62.0 percent of Buffalo’s snaps through five games. That’s led to him seeing at least 13 carries in every game and 19 or more carries in three games this season.

He should be able to find the end zone on Monday night.

Bijan Robinson OVER 76.5 Rushing Yards (-114) – Peter Dewey 

Easily my favorite prop on Monday night is for Bijan Robinson, who should have a huge game on the ground against a suspect Buffalo run defense: 

Robinson has arguably been the best running back in the NFL this season, putting up huge numbers both on the ground and through the air. 

He’s racked up 314 rushing yards and 270 receiving yards in four games, but I’m targeting his rushing yards prop against a weak Buffalo run defense in Week 6. 

Buffalo ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per carry allowed (5.6), and it is just 28th in the league in EPA/Rush. So, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Falcons lean on Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to move their offense in Week 6. 

Through four games, Robinson has 77 or more rushing yards just one time, but he has finished with 72 or more in three of his games. In such a favorable matchup, I think it’s reasonable to take Robinson to clear this prop, especially since he has 12 or more carries in every game this season.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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