Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Bears vs. Commanders on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 6)

Breaking down the top picks and prediction for the Chicago Bears-Washington Commanders matchup on Monday night.

The Washington Commanders and quarterback Jayden Daniels are favored in Week 6 / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Fresh off of their bye week, the Chicago Bears are looking to win a third straight game when they take on the Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football in Week 6.

This matchup is a battle of the top two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft – Chicago’s Caleb Williams and Washington’s Jayden Daniels. The Commanders are set as favorites in this game, and they’re hoping to re-capture some of the magic that they had against Chicago last season.

Daniels won the Commanders last year’s matchup with the Bears on a Hail Mary, and the play effectively ended the Bears season, as they ended the campaign on a massive losing streak.

With Ben Johnson now at the helm, Chicago has looked like an improved team on offense, but can it truly contend in the NFC?

This game should have a ton of interesting prop targets, and the SI Betting team has shared plenty of picks for the primetime matchup all week long.

Here’s a few of our favorites to help prepare you for this Monday night showdown. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Bears vs. Commanders

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Washington Commanders -3.5 (-115) vs. Chicago Bears – Iain MacMillan
• Caleb Williams OVER 31.5 Pass Attempts (-123) – Peter Dewey
• Deebo Samuel Anytime TD (+140) – Peter Dewey
• D’Andre Swift UNDER 48.5 Rushing Yards (-114) – Peter Dewey

Washington Commanders -3.5 (-115) vs. Chicago Bears – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan broke down his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column – where he picks every game, every week – and he’s backing Daniels and company to get the win: 

Don't let the Chicago Bears being on a BYE week after their Week 4 win against the Raiders distract you from the fact that this is a bad football team. The Bears rank 30th in the league in Net Yards per Play at -1.4, and they're in the bottom 10 in the league in DVOA.

I wasn't high on the Commanders coming into this season, but they've looked better than I expected, and Jayden Daniels did enough to get the win against a strong Chargers defense last week. Now, he gets to face a Bears' secondary that allows 7.5 yards per pass attempt, which is the fifth-worst mark in the NFL.

I'll lay the points with the Commanders here.

Caleb Williams OVER 31.5 Pass Attempts (-123) – Peter Dewey

The Bears have had a strong passing offense this season, and they may favor attacking through the air with Caleb Williams against Washington: 

Since Washington has one of the better run defenses in the league, the Bears may lean on the arm of Caleb Williams in Week 6. 

Williams has attempted at least 28 passes in every game this season and 30 or more passes in three of his four matchups. With the Bears set as underdogs in Week 6, they may be forced to throw a little more if they are playing from behind. 

Washington is just 19th in the NFL in EPA/Pass this season, and it’s allowing the seventh-most net yards per pass attempt. 

Since Williams has improved steadily over the last few weeks in Ben Johnson’s scheme, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him air it out on Monday night.

Deebo Samuel Anytime TD (+140) – Peter Dewey

Deeb Samuel has found the end zone in all but one game this season, and he’s worth a look at plus money against this Bears defense that has allowed the fifth-most points per game in the league: 

The addition of Deebo Samuel has paid off nicely for Washington, especially with Terry McLaurin battling a quad injury.

Samuel has found the end zone in four of his five games in the 2025 season, and he’s averaging nearly eight targets (38 total) per game. 

The Bears are just 17th in the NFL in EPA/Play, and they’ve allowed the fifth-most points in the league, meaning Washington should be able to score fairly easily on Monday night. 

Samuel has been a threat both through the air and on the ground, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he leads the Commanders in receiving in Week 6.

D’Andre Swift UNDER 48.5 Rushing Yards (-114) – Peter Dewey

It’s been a rough start to the season for D’Andre Swift running the ball, and Washington’s defense poses a tough matchup in Week 6: 

Running room has been scarce for Bears running back D’Andre Swift in the 2025 season. 

He’s averaging just 3.3 yards per carry, and he did not reach 40 rushing yards in back-to-back games before Chicago’s Week 5 bye.

Now, the touches have been there for Swift – he has at least 12 carries in every game – but he’s still a tough player to trust against this Washington defense.

The Commanders are allowing just 4.0 yards per carry this season – tied for the ninth-best mark in the NFL – and they rank 10th in the league in EPA/Rush.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Swift fall short of this number for the third game in a row.

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