Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets and Props (Expect Lightning vs. Panthers to be Defensive Showdown)

Iain MacMillan | Mar 3, 2025

The total is set at just 5.5 for Monday night's battle of Florida between the Lightning and Panthers. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

It's a new week which means we have a fresh slate of NHL games to bet on as we approach the final stretch of the regular season.

Monday night has a few pivotal games on tap including a key game in the Atlantic Division between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers. The two Florida squads are in the middle of a three-way logjam with the Toronto Maple Leafs atop the division. One of my three best bets tonight is on the total in the battle of Florida.

• NHL Season-to-Date Record: 118-119-7 (-8.94 units)

Best NHL Bets and Props Tonight

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

• Capitals -145 vs. Senators
• Lightning vs. Panthers UNDER 5.5 (+100)
• Quinton Byfield OVER 0.5 Points (-115)

Senators vs. Capitals Prediction

If you want to stick to only looking at advanced analytics, you're going to try to fade the Washington Capitals as much as possible. They're in the bottom 10 in the league in almost every advanced metric, but some times in hockey great shooting and fantastic goaltending can overcome everything else and that's exactly what the Capitals are doing.

Tonight, they take on a Senators team that has similar underlying numbers to the Capitals, but are on the complete opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to shooting. The Capitals are second in the NHL in shooting percentage (12.9%) over their last 25 games while the Senators are 31st at 8.25%.

That's enough for me to continue to trust Washington on its home ice tonight.

Pick: Capitals -145

Lightning vs. Panthers Prediction

It hasn't been confirmed yet who the starting goaltenders will be tonight, but if it's the two starters, we have a duel between two of the hottest goalies in the NHL right now. Since January 1, Andrei Vasilevskiy leads the league in save percentage at .935 and Sergei Bobrovsky is fifth at .918.

As a result, in their last 25 games they've both allowed just 2.34 goals per 60 minutes of play, tied for the second best mark in the NHL behind only the Winnipeg Jets. Finally, add in the fact they're both in the bottom half of the league in shooting percentage during that stretch and we have a recipe for a low-scoring affair tonight.

Pick: UNDER 5.5 (+100)

Kings vs. Blackhawks Player Prop

Quinton Byfield has seen has ice time increase as the season has gone on. His average ice time jumped from 16:52 in November to 19:06 in December, 19:47 in January and then 20:22 in February. He's worked his way on to the top line and the second power play unit, resulting in 11 points in eight games last month.

Now, he and the Kings get to face one of the worst teams in the league in the Chicago Blackhawks tonight. I love the -115 price tag on him to record at least a single point tonight.

Pick; OVER 0.5 Points (-115)

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