Betting Vegas: Sharps vs. Public Showdown Brewing on Steelers-Jets in NFL Week 1

Gilberto Manzano | Sep 4, 2025

Sharp bettors are backing the Jets and quarterback Justin Fields in Week 1. / Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin. / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Occasionally, oddsmakers have to scramble to change odds whenever blockbuster NFL trades occur. But this wasn’t the case at the BetMGM sportsbooks after last week’s shocking announcement of the Cowboys trading Micah Parsons to the Packers. 

This was one of those times Vegas knew something before the public did. Thanks to information provided by a source, Lamarr Mitchell and his team had enough time to change the Packers’ Super Bowl odds from 22-1 to 13-1 before most football fans saw the trade notifications from Adam Schefter, Ian Rapoport and other prominent NFL insiders. 

“Typically, we get hit before the news comes out, but this time, we were, luckily, ahead of the market,” says Mitchell, the executive director of trading for MGM Resorts/BetMGM. 

Mitchell said he didn’t see any significant bets on the Packers to win Super Bowl LX after the Parsons trade other than a few bets of about $2,000. Perhaps bettors are waiting to see how the Packers and Parsons fare against the Lions in Sunday’s season-opening showdown.  

With insight from Mitchell, here’s everything you need to know about the betting market for NFL Week 1. 

Sharps vs. Public NFL Week 1

Mitchell is expecting the public to be all over the Steelers for their road matchup against the Jets, with Pittsburgh currently laying three points. As for the sharps, they’re eyeing the three points for the home team in this battle that features starting quarterbacks swapping places. 

I have this one circled, too, in favor of the Jets. They could give this vaunted Steelers’ defense plenty of fits with the mobility of Justin Fields, who’ll have the luxury of throwing to Garrett Wilson. Last year, New York’s playbook was limited by Aaron Rodgers’s lack of mobility. The 41-year-old signal-caller will make his Steelers debut vs. former teammates Sauce Gardner, Quinnen Williams and the rest of the talented Gang Green defense. 

I do have concerns, however, about the Jets losing standout guard Alijah Vera-Tucker to a season-ending injury. Still, the Jets have developed plenty of depth on the offensive line via recent drafts, including the first-round selection of tackle Armand Membou. 

As for another potential sharp play, Mitchell said he wouldn’t be surprised if he saw a good amount of money on the Saints to cover 6.5 points at home against a Cardinals squad that faded toward the end of last season. The Saints did start out 2–0 last season before the wheels came off on a miserable 5-12 season. 

“It’s hard to say with Week 1 because Week 1 is so volatile,” Mitchell says. “You don’t have teams playing their starters [in the preseason], and when they do play, they play for a half or a quarter. So you’re really not sure what you’re going to get.”

Biggest Liabilities NFL Week 1

Mitchell and most Vegas oddsmakers are going to be huge Browns (+5.5 vs. Bengals) and Titans (+8 at Broncos) fans by Sunday morning. 

It seems not many bettors care that the Bengals were upset by the Patriots in Week 1 last year, nor that Joe Burrow’s teams have historically started slow. Most of the tickets and money the BetMGM books have received have been on the Bengals at -5.5, according to Mitchell, including a 10-to-1 ratio when it comes to the money. 

“No one is giving Joe Flacco and the Browns any chance at all,” Mitchell says. “For the house, we need the Browns and we’ll need the Browns to cover that 5.5.”

Still, there might be more faith in the Browns beating a divisional rival at home than rookie Cam Ward pulling off the upset in Denver for his starting debut. This is one heavy favorite I can see covering the spread in Week 1 because of how good this Denver defense can be in 2025. This potentially lopsided matchup also had a 10-to-1 money disparity, as of Wednesday, with bettors favoring the Broncos.   

Big Bets on Seahawks 

The NFC West could be the most competitive division in football, but that hasn’t stopped bettors from heavily supporting one team in this race that could come down to the final week. 

Mitchell said the BetMGM books have received a high amount of five-figure futures bets on Seattle to make the playoffs, capture the NFC West title and win the Super Bowl. There’s plenty of value in backing the Seahawks to take the division with +525 odds at MGM properties. The Cardinals currently follow at +450, the Rams at +180 and the 49ers at +160.

“They’re one of our biggest liabilities,” Mitchell says about Seahawks future bets. “Not a lot of transactions, but a lot of money on that one team.”

We’ll get a good glimpse about the potential pecking order in the NFC West when the Seahawks host the 49ers on Sunday. As of Wednesday, most of the money and transactions were on San Francisco to cover as -2.5 road favorites, according to Mitchell. 

Manzano’s NFL Week 1 Betting Tips

*Betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook 

Buck the trend: Lions (+2.5) at Packers

There are a few trends here that I’m not in favor of, one being the lack of faith in the Lions because they lost Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn as coordinators. Coach Dan Campbell hasn’t left and neither has his loaded roster. 

After minimal participation in the Cowboys’ training camp, new Packers edge rusher Micah Parsons has to get acclimated against a stout offensive line and a dynamic rushing attack. Parsons can certainly get after the quarterback, but he has struggled against the run in recent seasons. It’s going to take Parsons time to be at full strength and learn the Green Bay defensive scheme. 

Take the Lions here. It’s also a bit disrespectful that the Lions now have the same Super Bowl odds as the Packers, who went from 20-1 to 12-1 at many sportsbooks.  

Enticing Bet: Texans (+3) at Rams 

Both these teams have offensive line concerns and each side is facing stacked defensive fronts. But C.J. Stroud isn’t 37 and he doesn’t have a bad back, which is the case with Matthew Stafford. 

Expect Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter to apply constant pressure on Stafford and for the back end of the defense to contain Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. The Rams have several holes in their back end, with a secondary that could get exposed by Nico Collins and Texans newcomers Christian Kirk and rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. 

As of Wednesday, the public didn’t agree with my pick here. Most of the money and tickets at the BetMGM properties were on the Rams, according to Mitchell. 

Moneyline Dog: Seahawks (+120) vs. 49ers

It’s no secret that I believe the 49ers are overrated. There’s too much focus on their past achievements and so-called cupcake schedule and not enough attention on their inexperienced defense and injury-riddled wide receivers. 

Now, I’m not saying the Seahawks will have a better season than the 49ers, but they’re at least healthy and playing at home. I do have concerns about what this offense will look like with Sam Darnold, but again, San Francisco lost many starters defensively. Defensive chemistry won’t be an issue for coach Mike Macdonald’s defense.   

Not So Risky: Dolphins (+1.5) at Colts 

It’s a good sign that the Dolphins’ top edge rushers are heading into Week 1 on the active roster. Who knows whether Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips are at full strength, but they’re available and they, along with second-year player Chop Robinson, could create a ton of problems for new Colts quarterback Daniel Jones. 

There’s also continuity on the Miami offense with Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Indianapolis didn’t do much in the offseason to improve a mediocre defense outside of hiring Lou Anarumo as defensive coordinator.  

Stay Away: Commanders (-6) vs. Giants

I’m not touching this game. I have too much respect for this New York defense. Also, let’s not forget that the Commanders only beat the Giants by three points in both games last year. 

This could be another close divisional battle. Look for stud wide receiver Malik Nabers to torch this Washington secondary. 

Parlay: Panthers (+3.5) at Jaguars, Falcons (+1.5) vs. Buccaneers, Chiefs (-3) vs. Chargers (Brazil)

I’ll admit it. I probably like too many road teams to cover the spread, but a handful of upsets tend to happen during Week 1. 

The Panthers will be better defensively after several additions on that side of the ball, and don’t be surprised if rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan makes an immediate impact. If Michael Penix Jr. picks up where he left off last year, I might be betting on the Falcons often this year. And Chiefs vs. Chargers could come down to the wire, but with this game being played on a neutral site, give me the reigning AFC champions. 

Favorite Fave: Patriots (-3) vs. Raiders 

There’s been plenty of action on the home team Raiders, with Mitchell calling them a liability for the house if they were to reach the AFC Championship game. 

That’s not too surprising because Raiders fans tend to support their team at the ticket counter, especially when they have hope, and there’s plenty of that this year with the arrivals of Geno Smith and coach Pete Carroll. But the same can be said about the Patriots after all the splash moves the team made with new coach Mike Vrabel. 

I’ll take the home team to handle the Silver and Black. Mitchell, however, expects a lot more money to pour in on the Raiders’ side before kick off Sunday.   

Best Over/Under Total: Patriots-Raiders (over 43.5, -112) 

This total seems a bit low for a revamped Raiders’ offense under the guidance of offensive play-caller Chip Kelly. Smith throwing to Brock Bowers and handing the ball off to rookie Ashton Jeanty could lead to plenty of points against Vrabel’s defense. As for Drake Maye, he could light up a suspect Las Vegas defense. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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