Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for AFC Championship Game

Iain MacMillan | Jan 21, 2025

The Kansas City Chiefs are home favorites to the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship. / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have become this generation's version of the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts. Tom Brady and the Patriots met Peyton Manning and the Colts in the postseason on an almost year basis with Brady getting the upper hand more often than not.

Sub in Patrick Mahomes for Brady and Josh Allen for Manning and we have the latest AFC rivalry. The Bills have continuously beat the Chiefs in the regular season, including this year, but have gone 0-3 when the two teams have met in the playoffs.

Will this year's AFC Championship be any different, or will the Chiefs return to the Super Bowl for the third straight season?

Let's find out what the oddsmakers think and then I'll break down my best bet.

Bills vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Bills +1.5 (-105)
• Chiefs -1.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Bills +108
• Chiefs -126

Total

• OVER 47.5 (-110)
• UNDER 47.5 (-110)

Bills vs. Chiefs How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, January 26
• Time: 6:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CBS/Paramount+
• Bills record: 13-4
• Chiefs record: 15-2

Bills vs. Chiefs Betting Trends

• Bills are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games
• The OVER is 8-3 in the Bills' last 11 games
• Bills are 4-2 ATS in their last six games vs. Chiefs
• The OVER is 5-1 in the Bills' last six road games
• Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played in Kansas City
• Chiefs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games
• The UNDER is 6-1 in the Chiefs' last seven games

Bills vs. Chiefs Injury Reports

Bills Injury Report

• Christian Benford, CB - Questionable
• Taylor Rapp, S - Questionable
• Baylon Spector, LB - IR
• Travis Clayton, OT - IR

Chiefs Injury Report

• Mecole Hardman WR - IR-R
• Marlon Tuipulotu, DT - IR
• Skyy Moore, WR - IR
• Jack Cochrane, LB - IR
• Spencer Shrader, K - IR

Bills vs. Chiefs Key Players to Watch

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen: The NFL MVP award may end up going to Lamar Jackson, but Josh Allen has a chance to win something even better; a Super Bowl. He has had opportunity after opportunity but has fallen short each time. He has a chance to finally overcome that and take down the Chiefs to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in his career. This is the biggest game of his career to date.

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes: The Chiefs may not be as talented as other teams in the NFL, but Patrick Mahomes has consistently made big plays in critical moments in key games and he hasn't done anything to the contrary in the past number of years. Does he have more tricks up his sleeve to break the hearts of Bills fans once again?

Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction and Pick

In this week's edition of the "Road to Super Bowl 59," I broke down why I'm taking the Chiefs to win and cover as short favorites:

I have been saying all season the Chiefs haven't been as good as their record and calling them "frauds," but it's time to wave the white flag. I was wrong. Sometimes, you need to look past some of the numbers and while one side may have better metrics in certain areas, the Chiefs find ways to win big games time and time again. Remember, doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is insanity. I will no longer be doing that, it's time to join the dark side.

Not only that, but I have zero faith in the Bills' defense. I bet against them last week due to how bad their defensive numbers are, but they were saved by the Ravens coughing up the ball three teams and the Bills were still a dropped two-point conversion away from having the game tied late despite sporting a +3 turnover differential.

The Buffalo defense has been one of the worst in the NFL in the second half of the season, including ranking 22nd in opponent success rate and 24th in opponent dropback EPA since Week 10. The Chiefs will hand the Bills yet another postseason loss.

Pick: Chiefs -1.5 (-115)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!