Bills vs. Falcons Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 6 (Trust Atlanta at Home?)

The Falcons are 1-1 straight up at home in 2025.

The Atlanta Falcons are favored in Week 6. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Michael Penix Jr. and the Atlanta Falcons are fresh out of their bye week and looking to get over .500 for the first time in the 2025 season when they take on the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen on Monday night.

Buffalo has started off strong with a 4-1 record, but it’s coming off a loss as a major favorite at home in Week 5 against the New England Patriots. 

The Bills are road favorites in this primetime matchups, but they haven’t covered the spread in back-to-back weeks against the New Orleans Saints and Pats. Meanwhile, Atlanta is coming off arguably its best win of the season in Week 4 against the Washington Commanders. 

Each week this season, the SI Betting team will be sharing final score predictions for every game as a way to help bettors decide on spread and total bets.

Here’s my score prediction for this Monday Night Football matchup. 

Bills vs. Falcons Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Bills -4.5 (-115)
• Falcons +4.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Bills: -225
• Falcons: +185

Total

• 49.5 (Over -118/Under -102)

Buffalo actually opened as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday night, but that number has come down after the Bills dropped their first game of the season to New England in Week 5.

The Falcons are just 2-2 against the spread this season, but they are coming off a win and off of their bye week in Week 5. 

Bills vs. Falcons Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan broke down his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column – where he picks every game, every week – and he’s taking a shot on the underdogs in Week 6: 

The Buffalo Bills were exposed on Sunday Night Football. They are an elite offense that has plenty of issues on defense. Now, they have to take on a Falcons team that's coming off a BYE that has looked extremely strong defensively to start the season. The Falcons lead the NFL in Defensive DVOA, and overall, they're fifth in the league in Net Yards per Play at +0.8. Meanwhile, the Bills are 22nd in Defensive DVOA and are ninth in Net Yards per Play at +0.7.

The biggest question mark in this game is which version of Michael Penix Jr. will show up in this game, but I'm banking on his preparation being locked in after a week off. Atlanta may not win, but I'll take the 4.5 points with the Falcons on their home field on Monday Night Football.

Atlanta is 1-1 against the spread (and straight up) at home, but that loss came in the final minute against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1. In fact, the Falcons are 2-1 in a dome this season and have actually played pretty well outside of their shocking 30-0 loss to Carolina.

I think bettors have to take that game as more of an anomaly than anything else, and I like that the Falcons are coming into this game rest and off a bye. I think they can cover the number, as Buffalo’s run defense is going to struggle slowing down Bijan Robinson.

The Bills are allowing 5.6 yards per carry this season, and they may not have an easy time on offense against an Atlanta team that is seventh in defensive EPA/Play. 

Buffalo may win this game, but I expect it to be close.

Final Score Prediction: Bills 24, Falcons 20

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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