Bills vs. Texans Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 12

The Bills are road favorites in Week 12 on Thursday night.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

A major AFC matchup takes place on Thursday night in Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season, as the Houston Texans (5-5) host the Buffalo Bills (7-3). 

Both of these teams are coming off big wins in Week 11, as the Bills came back to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a high-scoring game in Buffalo while the Texans won on a last-second field goal against the Tennessee Titans.

Houston has won back-to-back games without C.J. Stroud (concussion) and the former first-round pick could be facing an uphill battle to clear the concussion protocols and play in Week 12. 

Davis Mills did just enough to beat the Titans in Week 12, and Houston would likely be a major home underdog if he has to start this game. As it is, oddsmakers have favored the Bills on Thursday night.

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch, betting trends and my prediction for this primetime matchup. 

Bills vs. Texans Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Bills -3.5 (-110)
• Texans +3.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Bills: -192
• Texans:+160

Total

• 44.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Bills vs. Texans How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Nov. 20
• Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
• Venue: NRG Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
• Bills record: 7-3
• Texans record: 5-5

Bills vs. Texans Betting Trends

• The Bills are 5-5 against the spread this season.
• The Texans are 4-6 against the spread this season.
• The UNDER is 6-3-1 in the Texans’ 10 games this season.
• The OVER is 5-5 in the Bills’ 10 games this season. 
• The Bills are 2-2 against the spread on the road this season.
• The Texans are 3-2 against the spread at home this season. 

Bills vs. Texans Injury Reports

Bills Injury Report

• TBA

Texans Injury Report

• CJ Stroud – questionable
• TBA

Bills vs. Texans Key Player to Watch

Josh Allen, Quarterback, Buffalo Bills

The reigning NFL MVP had a massive game on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to get the Bills to 7-3 in the 2025 season. 

Allen threw for 317 yards, three scores, two picks and ran for 40 yards and three scores on the ground. He’s now up to 18 passing scores in the 2025 season. The Bills may need a heroic showing from Allen to win and cover in this matchup, as Houston entered Week 11 with the No. 1 defense in the NFL against the pass. 

Turnovers have been a little bit more of a problem for Allen this season, as he has seven picks in 10 games, but he bounced back in a big way from a poor showing against Miami. 

If Allen turns in another big game, it could put him back near the top of the odds to win MVP in back-to-back seasons. 

Bills vs. Texans Prediction and Pick

Even if Stroud plays in this game, the Texans are a tough team to trust, as they’ve been a bottom half offense (entered Week 10 at 18th in EPA/Play) basically all season. 

Allen and the Bills have had some up and down games, but they clearly found some rhythm in Week 11 against Tampa Bay, and they have the rushing offense to put pressure on this Houston team.

The Texans struggled to hold off a Tennessee team that has just one win in the 2025 season, and if Mills has to start, there’s no way this Houston attack keeps up with Allen, James Cook and company.

The Bills are .500 against the spread against the road, but I’m buying them the rest of the season with a playoff spot on the line in the AFC. 

Pick: Bills -3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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