Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, July 28

Sean Treppedi | Jul 28, 2025

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s red-hot play looks promising to continue in Monday's matchup with Baltimore's pitching. / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Toronto having the best record in baseball at any point in this season was definitely not on my bingo card, but here we are. 

The Jays will begin a series against Baltimore, who has been one of baseball’s bigger disappointments, on Monday leading the game with 63 wins. 

Both starting pitchers are microcosms of their club’s season. Chris Bassitt (11-4, 3.88 ERA) has quietly been one of Toronto’s most dependable arms this season, though his struggles on the road continue to stand out. Zach Eflin (6-5, 5.78 ERA) can’t get it together in 2025, but his recent outing showed improved command that Baltimore hopes he can build on.

Here are my betting strategies for this game. 

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Blue Jays -1.5 (+140)
• Orioles +1.5 (-170)

Moneyline

• Blue Jays (-110)
• Orioles (-106)

Total

• Over 9.5 (-105)
• Under 9.5 (-115)

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Probable Pitchers

• Blue Jays: Chris Bassitt (11-4, 3.88 ERA)
• Orioles: Zach Eflin (6-5, 5.78 ERA)

Blue Jays vs. Orioles How to Watch

• Date: Monday, July 28, 2025
• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: Camden Yards
• How to Watch (TV): Sportsnet, MASN
• Blue Jays Record: 63-43
• Orioles Record: 47-58

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prop Bet

• Vladamir Guerrero Jr. 2+ Hits (+130 at FanDuel)

I’m riding the streak of multiple hits in five straight night games for Guerrero Jr.; he faces Eflin’s .323 batting opposing average to lefties. While Guerrero bats right-handed, he still thrives against pitchers like Eflin who lack swing-and-miss stuff and allow consistent hard contact.

Eflin’s low strikeout rate (16.4%) makes him highly vulnerable to a Guerrero Jr. who shows plate discipline and is heating up at the right time. With the Blue Jays projected to see early bullpen action due to Eflin’s recent short outings, Guerrero could get favorable matchups all night anyway.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

With Bassitt in trustworthy form, I’m comfortable with laying runs down here. He’s given up just seven earned runs allowed over his last 26.1 innings and is limiting hard contact better than almost any starter in baseball per Statcast.

Besides, he already shut down Baltimore once this year. Eflin, meanwhile, has been getting shelled — giving up 19 earned runs over his last four starts and struggling badly against lefties, who are hitting .323 with 14 homers off him. The Jays also hold a significant bullpen edge and they’ve covered the run line in four straight against the O’s following a loss.

Toronto hasn’t dropped consecutive games since the All-Star break and has won seven of eight against AL East teams.

Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (-130 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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